Australia: Upside seen for crops ahead of ABARES report

Rain over July and August across the entire Australian grainbelt has made upward revisions to major crops likely when ABARES updates its estimates on Tuesday in the quarterly Australian Crop Report.

Western Australia, where prospects were recently outlined by the Grain Industry Association of WA in its monthly report released August 15, is potentially looking at the most improved yield prospects.

This follows general rain of up to 60mm in places in the past week, and good winter falls for most regions prior to that.

In-crop rain has put South Australia and Victoria on track for average yields, provided the all-important spring weather is kind to compensate for limited subsoil moisture.

Queensland is heading for another bumper crop, while New South Wales production is looking at being above-average in the north to average at best for much of the south.

Table 1: Standing estimates for Australia’s major crops in million tonnes from ABARES June 3, Australian Crop Forecasters’ August report, Lachstock Consulting’s July 22 wheat, August 4 barley and August 20 canola reports, and USDA August figures.

Queensland is on track to harvest an above-average crop, provided late frost or waterlogging do not dent the outlook.

In Central Qld, Clermont grower Brad Mifsud estimates the local harvest will start in mid-September, ahead of the bulk of harvest taking place in October.

“We could do with some rain for the last of the later stuff, but there’s now plenty of moisture under most crops.”

Mr Mifsud said chickpea crops looked to be on track to yield around 2.5t/ha, and wheat a little more.

“There’s some really handy wheat around; it’s an above-average season, and it’s all coming in pretty quick.”

AgForce grains president and Warra grower Brendan Taylor said recent rain delivered up to 50mm to some crops from roughly Roma to Goondiwindi.

“Some are saying it’s added up to 1.5t/ha to cereal yields,” Mr Taylor said.

“They were talking yields of 2t/ha out west; now it’s more like 3t/ha.”

Some paddocks, including those on the Taylors’ farm, are excessively wet, and Mr Taylor said growers were “quietly concerned about the spring outlook”.

The Bureau of Meteorology forecast is for above-average rainfall from September to November, which bodes well for summer crops, but could lead to a slow finish to the winter-crop growing season, and a boggy harvest.

Many crops in southern Qld are looking at another bumper season.

“Early barley looks magnificent.

“By the end of September, our early barley will be very close to harvest.

“Last year we got 5-6t/ha, and I can’t see it being any different this year.”

The NSW season is highly variable, with crops in the northern half of the state generally looking at a bumper harvest, and those in much of the southern half looking at an average one if all goes well.

It means the state’s cereal crops could yield anything from 6.5t/ha or more in the north to less than 2.5t/ha in parts of the outer south-west.

The dividing line runs through the Parkes district, where PY Agronomy principal Peter Yelland said crops were “starting to feel the pinch dry-wise now”.

He said the earlier season looked good as far south as the Lachlan River, but that line has moved north.

“About 10km south of Parkes, it starts to buckle.”

“We’ve only had decile-three rainfall this season, and there’s not a lot of subsoil moisture.”

Mr Yelland said canola was generally halfway through flowering.

“We need rain to finish; the crop won’t get through for an average season without it.”

He said top dressing of crops was just about over, and stock were off dual-purpose crops now shut up for grain.

The NSW harvest is expected to start in November in north-western districts.

Victoria has regrouped after a late start to its cropping season, with some rain in the past day or so, and more forecast into Friday.

“The crops have turned a corner…and they’ve gone from reasonably ordinary to quite good,” Riordan Grains manager of grain services Hamish MacDonald said.

Lack of subsoil moisture remains a concern.

“Another 10mm on Friday would make people more comfortable with the job, and we want the rain after some windy weather.”

Crops in parts of the north-west Mallee running into SA remains are struggling, and need substantial rain in the next week or two to keep even average yields in sight.

Overall, Wimmera, Western District, and southern Mallee crops are in good stead, but conditions will deteriorate without substantial rain next month.

In the Western District, canola is in flower, and barley in the southern Mallee is tillering.

Vic’s harvest normally starts in the first days of November, and the late germination this season means an early start is highly unlikely.

South Australian crops are gaining ground after the late break which germinated dry-sown crops.

However, a lack of subsoil moisture in most districts means crops are relying heavily on in-crop rain in spring.

Port Lincoln-based Agfert Fertilizers chief business growth and relations officer Tim Gurney said much of Eyre Peninsula’s southern reaches were looking good after recent rain.

“It’s been a welcome turnaround to where we were nine weeks ago; most parts have had the wettest July since 1999, but some farms have had only 10mm in August,” Mr Gurney said.

“We’re going to need a kind September, and October too, given the crop’s late.”

On much of EP and the neighbouring Yorke Peninsula, average yields are seen as entirely possible if in-crop rain keeps coming, and the end to the growing season is mild.

However, parts of the Upper EP, the Mid North and its neighbours, and the Murray-Mallee have had less in-crop rain since germination, and some seedlings suffered setbacks after prolonged buffeting by strong winds.

Mr Gurney said top dressing of crops was “just about finished”, and will leave Agfert with product in stock.

Mr Gurney said after a few warmer days last week, a “fair proportion” of canola on the central and lower EP was in flower.

SA’s crops are primarily harvested in November.

Tags: yield, rain, Australia, harvest, barley, canola, Production, wheat, crop