Australia: Tough September makes sub 30Mt wheat likely

A drt and frosty September in south-eastern Australia is turning many wheat, barley and canola crops planted for grain into hay, and cribbing production potential from the national forecasts.

Buffering this is an above-average to bumper season for the northern region, as confirmed by the harvest of early crops in Queensland and the northern half of New South Wales.

Prompting growers in South Australia, Victoria and southern NSW to cut cereals and canola for hay are concerns about uneconomically low yields and a high proportion of off-spec grain, while crops with very low biomass are being grazed or sprayed out.

On September 3, ABARES lifted its forecast for Australia’s new-crop wheat to 31.8 million tonnes (Mt) from 29.1Mt seen in early June, barley to 12.2Mt from 11.5Mt, and canola to 5.5Mt from 5.4Mt; revised numbers will be out December 3.

In mid-September, USDA lifted its forecast for Australia’s 2024-25 wheat to 32Mt, up 2Mt from the August number; it also added 2Mt to its forecast for 2024-25 wheat exports, now at 25Mt; USDA may revise its figures on October 11.

After  the tough September in south-eastern Australia, ABARES and USDA numbers are looking overdone when compared with Australian Crop Forecasters’ current estimates.

Unofficially released this week, they stand at 30Mt for wheat, 11Mt for barley, and 5-5.2Mt for canola, assuming average rainfall for October and no extreme heat.

The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia will update its current estimates for wheat, barley, canola, and other crops in its next crop report to be published October 18.

“There’d be no upside,” GIWA report author Michael Lamond told Grain Central.

“The slide has been dramatic since the last report, but this bit of a change of weather coming through at the moment will arrest that slide, and will arrest it more in the south than the north.”

While GIWA’s barley estimate of 4.3Mt for WA may hold, a big cut is expected to its wheat number of 9.3Mt, and 2.2Mt for canola is also likely to drop.

Following the Grain Industry Association of Victoria’s annual two-day crop tour to be held October 17-18, estimates for Vic’s wheat and barley crops, and an insight into how much has been cut for hay, are expected in late October or early November.

Very few SA farmers can expect even average yields this year, as evidenced by figures in the latest Department of Primary Industries and Regions SA crop and pasture report based on information current as of September 20.

It has cut the estimate for SA’s total winter crop, including pulses, to 5.9Mt from 7.7Mt seen in its previous figure based on conditions as of July 15.

PIRSA now puts the SA wheat crop at 3.2Mt, barley at 1.5Mt and canola at 348,100t, down 36 percent, 38pc and 31pc respectively on the five-year average.

“The area of wheat, barley, lentils, vetch and canola to be harvested is expected to reduce due lack of rainfall and the impact of frost,” the PIRSA report states.

“Many of these crops will either be grazed or cut for hay where there is sufficient biomass.”

Low rainfall and late emergence of crops have increased their vulnerability, with all cropping areas of SA continuing to experience very low rainfall, and most regions in decile 1, or lowest on record for the six months to August 31.

PIRSA said production estimates for the Western Eyre Peninsula, Upper North, and Murray Mallee are down more than 40 percent from the July PIRSA report, while estimates for the higher-rainfall areas of Lower Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula and the Lower South East are down 5-15pc.

“All estimates are expected to fall further by the time that harvest commences.”

Prior to the run of frosts, ACF in mid-September cut 4pc from its national new-crop wheat estimate to bring it to 30.5Mt, while barley dropped 3pc to 11.2Mt and canola fell 1pc to 5.5Mt, with SA wheat at 12pc getting the largest cut to drop it to 3.9Mt.

Those numbers came out when short-term forecasts were looking promising for SA, but actual rainfall came in very much on the low side.

“I know no two years are the same, but in the 2018 season, we estimated SA growers cut, grazed or brown-manured 200,000ha of wheat for hay due to drought and frost,” ACF agricultural analyst Rod Baker said.

“From what I am hearing, my feeling is that we will see a similar amount cut again in SA.

“Depending on how October plays out, if we get some early rain to stabilise current yields, that would bring SA (wheat) production down to 3.2-3.3Mt.

“As to whether it will be grazed out, baled or brown manured depends on the state of the crop; if the bulk is there, baling would be the first option.”

ACF estimates 190,000ha was cut for hay in Vic in 2018, and greater growing-season rainfall deficits this season, especially in the Western District and Wimmera, could pump up the area.

“For NSW, frost was a bit more widespread this year compared to 2018, the main difference being a much better soil-moisture profile, which could mitigate a bit, but there’s no doubt NSW wheat, barley and canola crops have also been heavily impacted.”

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Tags: canola, Production, wheat, yields, forecast, Cereals, Australia, exports, harvest, barley