Australia: Southern rain bolsters yields in later crops

Despite early harvest pressure, barley prices are holding, and wheat is expected to be warehoused or stored on farm amid lacklustre export demand and low prices.

Trade sources report consumer buying is modest, particularly after rain this week on many South Australian and Victorian crops to prop up yield potential for later plantings.

Temperatures in recent days have hit 40 degrees Celsius in some parts of eastern and South Australia, and ripening of cereals is accelerating.

It has also shut the gate on those cereal crops planted for grain being cut for hay instead.

	Prompt Oct 16	Prompt Oct 23	Jan Oct 16	Jan Oct 23
Downs barley	$288	$290	$302	$300
Downs SFW	$320	$324	$325	$328
Downs sorghum	$332	$335	Mar-Apr $315	$320
Mel barley	$330	$330	$330	$330
Mel ASW	$360	$350	$360	$350

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne

Southern Queensland’s barley harvest is making good progress as crops ripen in hot and dry conditions.

In northern New South Wales, harvest is ramping up, and a considerable amount of plains canola, barley and faba bean crops are already in the bin.

Recent days have seen some storm activity in the northern region, with NSW registrations in the week to 9am including 17-19mm at Coonabarabran, Gunnedah, and Moree, and very little elsewhere.

At more than $700/t delivered up-country depot, Priag Marketing Narrabri-based principal Kevin Schwager said canola remains the cash sell.

“Canola is very strong; there’s export demand, and the domestic crushers are in there too,” Mr Schwager said.

A number of barley crops in southern Qld have yielded more than 7.5t/ha, and early crops in northern NSW have also yielded well.

However, the dry finish has taken the gloss off yield potential for later crops.

While plenty of cereal crops in the Moree and Narrabri districts will yield more than 5t/ha, not many are forecast to eclipse 6t/ha.

“Later plantings on wheat will get checked a little bit, and chickpeas will too.”

The impact of a dry end to the season is yet to be seen from Moree south.

“Around Narrabri, we’re not going full throttle yet.”

Mr Schwager said barley at around $240-$250/t on farm was not an attractive prompt sell for growers, and nor were faba beans at around $300/t delivered Narrabri.

“Wheat prices aren’t strong either.”

Feedlots are generally seen as well covered in the near term, largely because they are using their own new-crop grain, or loads coming in from nearby farms.

One trade source said sell-side pressure is evident in the barley market, with homes hard to find in the near term.

“Consumers say they’re covered, some through to September,” he said.

Many SA and Vic crops have had rain in recent days, and in the nick of time in earlier-maturing areas.

Both states have also had heat and wind that has reduced biomass to the point where cutting crops not planted specifically for hay is no longer an option.

Digital Agriculture Services data indicates 3.3 percent of Victoria’s barley crop has been cut for hay, up from 2.9pc last year.

In SA, DAS data shows 30,000ha of barley, or 3.6pc of the crop, and 39,000ha of wheat, 1.9pc of the crop, have been cut for hay.

Pinion Advisory Horsham-based broker Andy Brown said some who have cut hay were pleased for the drying effects of wind ahead of baling, and the rain has been welcome, even at this late stage.

“That rain will help everything fill,” Mr Brown said of crops from the Wimmera south and east.

“A fair bit of wheat was cut for hay that was showing some real stress in the northern Wimmera.

“A few clients were waiting for Tuesday’s rain to determine whether they’d cut for hay; they couldn’t leave it any longer.”

Mr Brown said this wheat harvest was looking like being a high-protein one because more fertiliser was applied then crops utilise given the lack of late-season rain.

“I don’t know if there’ll be a lot of ASW around; growers fed crops to do 5t/ha, and they’ll probably do 3-3.5t.

“I think we’ll see a lot of H1 and H2.”

Mr Brown said consumers were sitting on their hands and waiting for harvest pressure to come to bear on grain prices.

Canola continues to shape up as the cash sell for those that have it, and those that do not are likely to sell barley in the face of the depressed lentil market.

“People have to sell something; barley prices are decile 3-4, and wheat’s 1-2.

“There will be barley sold, and lentils will be a sit in a lot of cases.”

In SA, registrations in the week to 9am today included: Clare 26mm; Cummins 20mm; Karoonda 21mm; Kimba 24mm; Paskeville 28mm; Roseworthy Ag 40mm, and Wudinna 19mm.

In Vic, registrations were patchier, and included: Horsham 20mm; Nhill 19mm; Rupanyup 18mm, and Warracknabeal Airport 17mm.

Very little rain made it into southern NSW, where plains and outer slopes crops are fast maturing, and showing the effects of running out of moisture at the end of their growing season.

Mr Brown said the same is true in some Vic paddocks.

“Some of these barley crops have tillered out and are running out of moisture, and the rain will alleviate…the low test-weight issue.”

Vic’s faba bean crops, and lentils in the Wimmera have kept flowering, and will get an extra boost from the rain.

Vic’s harvest is expected to ramp up next week, with early lentil crops now coming off just north of the Murray River.

Tags: canola, prices, wheat, chickpeas, yield, faba beans, Cereals, harvest, barley