Australia: Southern new-crop firms as yield outlook slips

Prices for new-crop wheat and barley in the southern market have firmed on a continued lack of grower selling in what for some is an alarmingly dry start to spring.

In the north, values have eased for barley in response to the big new crop being close to harvest, but wheat is further away and has traded steady to firmer as some start to anticipate a squeeze on available tonnes once chickpeas get moving.

Sorghum values have firmed as traders report ongoing interest from China, despite earlier rumours it was going to ratchet back its buying of the red grain until imported stocks cleared.

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Earliest barley crops in southern Queensland and far northern New South Wales are only around three weeks away from harvest, with some starting to turn.

From Moree south, later crops could do with a drink to max out yield potential, but are expected to yield above average even if a final rain does not arrive at grain-fill time.

Some early barley crops in Central Qld are being harvested, where wheat is expected to start in earnest in the next fortnight.

With export markets flat, larger consumers are confident they will be able to pick up plenty of wheat and barley off the header.

In contrast, smaller consumers are paying up to $20/t above the quoted market to tide them over until harvest.

“On barley, we’re selling prompt loads to smaller consumers wanting 40 or 50t a week,” one trader said.

“They’re happy to pay a premium if they’re running hand to mouth.”

SFW-type wheat is still around and making its way into the domestic market, and interest has picked up again in the sorghum market.

“Exporters are telling us the Chinese are back in town.”

South of Central Qld, which is expected to start harvesting chickpeas in the second half of next month, the north’s major pulse crop looks like it may be a little late to the party, with plenty of Downs and northern NSW crops still flowering.

This means the freight squeeze expected as a result of the chickpea task may start later than first thought, allowing trucks to get some early new-crop cereals in volume to consumers.

The trader said volume changing hands at present is thin.

“The market’s not really transparent at the moment.”

Cottonseed values have fallen sharply over past month on lack of China buying.

“Throw in big winter crops in northern NSW and southern Qld and domestic buyers are also reluctant to buy too far forward; they’re only buying hand to mouth,” Woodside Commodities managing director Hamish Steele-Park said.

Cotton ginning has finished in some valleys, but will be going well into next month in others.

In the south values ex Riverina gin are at $370/t, while northern NSW gins are $385/t for September.

“Values for next year’s crop are variable at evens to current crop in the Riverina, and $10-$20/t lower than current crop in northern NSW.”

Crop preparation is under way for planting from next month.

“Expectations are for another decent-sized cotton crop on the back of good water availability and lint prices.”

Some cereal crops in South Australia and Victoria are on track for average or slightly better yields, but many are in dire need of rain in the next two weeks to preserve hopes of achieving anything like an average yield.

With uninspiring prices on offer, and a late crop with its flank exposed to what could be a tough spring, one trader said growers can see no reason to sell.

Southern consumers are well covered in the near term, and taking comfort from the fact that a big crop is starting to fill north of the south-west slopes in NSW.

“Most of our old-crop program is pretty much done,” one consumer said.

“There are smaller parcels being offered up, but only really silo clean-outs.”

Growers and traders in the far south of NSW are recalling last year’s turn of events, when yield-saving rain fell in the week after the Henty Machinery Field Days, generally seen as the cut-off for such an event.

“We could still be okay, but we’ve got to have the rain soon.”

“Moisture-wise, the profile’s not great, and growers are still pretty nervous.”

“Even into next year, grower selling is limited on cereals.”

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Tags: prices, wheat, chickpeas, crop, Market, sorghum, China, barley