Australia: Rain slows northern harvest

Storms, showers and cool weather have slowed the pace of harvest in Queensland and northern New South Wales, creating some shorts in the market.

However, prompt northern prices have not reacted, with only the deferred-delivery ASW market ratcheting up.

In the south, storms in parts of Victoria’s Wimmera district have caused some damage, but also brought light but yield-preserving rain to later crops, while struggling crops in South Australia have had some decent rain.

Consensus is that the cutting of dry or frost-affected cereals and canola for hay is now over, and any crops left standing will now be taken through to harvest.

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Storms and showers have rolled through parts of Qld and northern NSW this week to slow or stop harvest on many farms.

Higher Qld registrations in the week to 9am today include: Capella 13mm; Clermont 9mm; Jondaryan 5mm; St George 22mm, and Springsure 6mm.

Substantial falls for the week in the northern half of NSW include: Coonamble 30mm; Pallamallawa 20mm; Walgett 28mm; Mungindi 18mm, and Narrabri 12mm.

Where rain missed the paddocks, barley is coming off in volume on the Downs and into the NSW-Qld border region, with many loads going straight to feedlots if the price is right.

Robinson Grain Toowoomba-based trader Anthony Furse said growers were selling what they have not been able to fit into on-farm storage.

“They’re selling overflow,” Mr Furse said.

“Everything’s slow; it’s a gritty stop-start affair.”

Modest buying is being seen from consumers.

“They expected to see more harvest activity by now, and there are a few nearby shorts the consumer needs to fill.”

The upside of the rain is its ideal timing for recently planted sorghum, and also cotton, now in its prime planting window.

Mr Furse said sorghum prices at around $300/t on farm, considerably lower than at this time last year, will do little to buy the red grain extra area.

Delta Grain broker Tom Vanzella said growers and traders were concerned about the spate of wet weather.

“The market’s digesting rain that’s forecast and rain that’s fallen,” Mr Vanzella said.

Central Qld is well advanced on its chickpea harvest, and wheat has started to make its way to depots.

“A little bit of wheat has come off up there, and it’s ASW and APW1, with a little bit of H2.”

Early indications on wheat yields point to 2.5-3t/ha for CQ.

GP and ASW wheat is going into depots for around $270/t plus, while ex farm values are holding at above $300/t; the difference reflects the lack of exporter interest in lower grades.

The northern NSW barley harvest was just getting going ahead of this week’s rain, and Mr Vanzella said a few execution shorts have shown up in the barley market.

“It’s been a bit of a delayed start…and more showers are predicted.”

Volume traded in the southern market remains very thin as growers wait to find out both yield and quality of the many crops that have been impacted by dry conditions and frost, with recent hail further affecting some districts.

While plenty of crops in the northern half of the Riverina and into the south-west and central slopes and plains of NSW did get good rain, many in the far south of NSW missed out, and may be looking at higher protein instead of higher yields.

“A lot of growers, where they’ve been able to, have fed the crop and set it up for big yields,” KeyAgri broker Matt Noonan said.

“Our thoughts are we’ll see a good portion of protein this harvest.”

NSW crops entered in the AgShowsNSW Dryland Field Wheat Competition are being judged over this and coming weeks, and co-ordinator of the Western region section and Matong farmer Stephen Hatty said his canola and wheat yield losses to recent frost may be as high as 30-40 percent.

“The season was looking pretty good until two or three weeks ago,” Mr Hatty said.

Unlike some others in the wider district, Mr Hatty has not cut any crops for hay after the frost event.

He is expecting to start windrowing canola next week, and wheat yields of a little below the 10-year average once he gets into cereals.

“If we average 2.5t per hectare for wheat, we’d be doing well.”

Mr Noonan said worst-affected crops may have lost 50-70pc of their yield potential, while some wheat crops could jag 3-4t/ha.

“It’s the age-old story; we’re not going to know until we get the headers in.”

Mr Noonan said consumers were “reasonably comfortable” with their level of coverage, following a buy-up of old-crop grain just prior to the frosts.

“There are open positions for November-December, but people are not sure of what the quality’s going to be like.”

Canola and lentils rather than wheat and barley appear to be the cash crops of choice to sell this harvest.

“If growers are seeing $700 plus at site (for canola), they’ll probably actively sell it.”

In the key cropping areas of Vic and SA, cutting of cash crops impacted by frost and/or dry for hay also appears to be over.

The viciousness of the SA season is supporting  a premium for its wheat and barley markets.

“It’s creeping into western Vic as well,” one trader said.

Major SA bulk handler Viterra has issued Australia’s first 2024-25 harvest report this week, with 126t in total of barley and lentils delivered to its Thevenard terminal on western Eyre Peninsula.

For almost 30 years of expertise in the agri markets, UkrAgroConsult has accumulated an extensive database, which became the basis of the platform AgriSupp.

It is a multi-functional online platform with market intelligence for grains and oilseeds that enables to get access to daily operational information on the Black Sea & Danube markets, analytical reports, historical data.

You are welcome to get a 7-day free demo access!!!

Tags: Market, showers, sorghum, harvest, barley, prices, wheat, storms, cool weather