Australia: Prices drop as rain arrives

Recent rain and more on the forecast has prompted an increase in grower selling for current crop, and an uptick in new-crop sales too.

While the South Australian and Victorian Mallee remain critically dry, they are forecast to join will all of the SA and eastern Australian grainbelt in getting at least 25mm of rain over the weekend.

Ahead of this, growers are spreading urea as fast as they can to give the crop a kick-on ahead of warmer weather expected in August.

Consumers are generally well covered, including stockfeed millers who are starting to see waning drought demand ahead of pasture growth and haymaking in spring.

In the north, earliesty crops are in head, and harvest of wheat and barley is expected to start in south-west Queensland and north-west New South Wales in September.

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Storms and showers have brought well-timed rain to pockets of the northern growing region, where heavy soils were starting to dry out.

In Central Qld, falls in the week to 9am today include: Clermont 28mm; Emerald 10mm, and Springsure 17mm.

In southern Qld, weekly figures include: Dalby and Surat 8mm; Felton 26mm; Jondaryan 15mm, St George 15mm, and Yangan 40mm.

Highest falls in northern NSW include: Moree 26mm; Mungindi 27mm; Narrabri 31mm, Pallamallawa and Wee Waa 23mm, and Tamworth 27mm.

Forecasts points to a general 25mm or more over the entire region over coming days, which will be ideal for crops as days begin to lengthen and temperatures warm.

Grower selling has picked up a little, but carryout on northern wheat especially is expected to be considerable.

“The odd grower is selling, but it’s amazing what’s still out there,” one trader said.

Stocks are still held in bunkers and silos on farm, and in warehousing at receival sites.

“The consumer can sit on their hands.

“There’s something coming to them every day at a lower level.”

Last sorghum cargoes for the season will load next month, and accumulation for them, as well as solid containerised demand, is keeping prices relatively steady.

Soaking rain is forecast for the entire NSW, SA, and Vic grainbelt in coming days.

This will add to the benefit of recent but patchy rain in the week to 9am today.

In southern NSW, registrations include: Cootamundra 12mm; Temora and West Wyalong 8mm, and  Young 19mm.

In Vic, falls include: Casterton 11mm; Rupanyup 11mm, and St Arnaud 8mm.

In SA, rain was more widespread, and rainfall include: Coulta 12mm; Cummins and Kimba 10mm; Keith 14mm; Melrose 13mm; Millicent 30mm; Minlaton 11mm; Penong 16mm; Wirrabara 10mm, and Wudinna 11mm.

However, most of SA’s Murray-Mallee, and Lower, Mid and Upper North got less than 10mm.

These figures are the start of the crops first widespread rain event since the season break arrived for most in early June, later than normal, but in time to produce average or better yields if spring is kind,

“At least we’ve got a big front coming, and we’re ahead of where we were April-May,” one trader said.

“We just need these longer days to get the crops going.”

The trader said a great deal of urea has been spread in the past two weeks ahead of this forecast rain to maximise yield potential.

“It’s been a real turnaround for the Riverina, but there are still some spots that have missed out.”

The trader said grower confidence in the crop was seeing farmers sell wheat ex-farm at around $320-$330/t, down from $340-$350/t in early July.

“The cash market’s back $15 or $20, and wheat’s been sold off pretty heavily.

“There’s certainly more available than there was last month…and there’s more confidence in the season.”

The recent arrival of a 22,000t cargo of Western Australian lupins, as reported in last week’s Feedgrain Focus, as well as 11,000t of palm kernel expeller coming into Portland next month, are expected to shore up the last of Vic’s drought-drive protein needs.

“Barley’s still pretty good value for the grower; there’s not the same liquidity in that market as there is with wheat.”

The trader reports a few growers have locked in their first small portions of new-crop wheat and barley.

He said it showed some growers getting their heads around the big Northern Hemisphere crop now hitting the market, and weakening basis for Australian exports, as well as improving prospects for the crop in south-eastern Australia.

Tags: harvest, barley, wheat, crop, forecast, showers, sorghum