Australia: Market ingests wet north, dry south

Soaking rain over much of Queensland’s grain-growing areas, and northern New South Wales too in the past week, has set the northern region up for a strong and early start to its winter-cropping program.

In contrast, conditions in South Australia and Victoria, and parts of southern NSW remain very dry  as growers wait for the autumn break.

In the latest Bureau of Meteorology outlook published March 27, the three-month April-June forecast is being influenced by a wetter-than-average April in northern and eastern Australia, followed by a drier-than-average signal in May across much of the country.

In the north, growers are not expected to start selling last winter’s cereals until the new financial year rolls around on July 1, while in the south, a modest amount of selling is taking place as growers book backloads of fertiliser ahead of planting.

Apart from usual consumer demand, barley, corn, and lupins are in demand in SA and Vic for graziers feeding stock during dry or drought conditions.

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Numerous locations in south-west Qld have had more than 100mm of rain in the week to 9am today, and graziers in remote areas are suffering some terrible stock losses and damage because of flooding.

In Qld’s lower-rainfall cropping zones, the same weather systems have set up irrigated and dryland country for an ideal start for winter cropping.

Registrations include: Clermont 74mm; Dalby 38mm; Emerald 70mm; Roma 33mm; St George 112mm; Springsure 140mm; and Surat 56mm.

Most of the Downs has had enough rain, with these latest falls coming after a soaking from ex-TC Alfred early last month.

In northern NSW, this week’s registrations include: Coonamble 72mm; Gunnedah 151mm; Moree 109mm; Mungindi 129mm; Narrabri 185mm; Walgett 201mm, and Wee Waa 245mm.

Once country dries out enough, growers are expected to start their winter sowing with faba beans, canola, and long-season bread wheats.

“Everyone from the Central West of NSW north and into CQ has got a ripper profile of moisture, and they’re going to harvest some sort of crop.

“Once the ground dries out enough to get on to, and they get some spraying done, they’ll be away.”

CQ, which sometimes missed out on the early break to get their maximum area of wheat and chickpeas in, is also looking it will have potential for  a big winter-crop area.

What little sorghum remains unharvested in Qld and northern NSW is now likely to be downgraded to Sorghum X, which is likely to make its way into pig and poultry rations.

Most consumers are seen as well covered for the current quarter, and some have made a solid start on coverage for Q3.

“Once growers get planting out of the road, they’ll be looking to sell some more wheat and barley in July-August.

“There’s still plenty out there.”

On cottonseed, Woodside Commodities managing director Hamish Steele-Park said prompt seed was in demand and trading at a large premium to reflect rain delays to cotton picking and ginning in NSW and Qld.

The softer market for May forward is sitting at $460/t delivered Downs and $410/t ex Moree, and ex gin southern NSW is $425/t gin spread for 2025.

“Some recent domestic demand has been supportive, as is export demand, but a little lower than current values.

“US seed is still a cheaper option on a CFR basis into Japan and South Korea by US$20/t, but China prefers to take Australian seed.”

Pinion Advisory manager Brad Knight said the market was generally steady, with consumers buying hand to mouth, and plenty of wheat still around.

“The main discussions around the place are about dryness, and the BoM outlook not being terribly favourable,” Mr Knight said.

Reasonable barley stocks are believed to be held on farm and in warehousing, but Mr Knight said growers with livestock to feed, or looking at selling into a drought market, will hang on to barley while conditions stay dry.

“It does have a psychological impact on the market, and it’s reducing the amount of barley being made available.

Some growers in SA and Vic have started dry sowing ahead of the hoped-for but not forecast break ideally arriving by Anzac Day, April 25.

“In the next 10 days, I’d say they’ll get going on the dry sowing, and most will start a week before Anzac Day, regardless of whether it’s rained or not,” one trade source said.

SA and Vic’s Western District continue to feel the bite of a very dry 2024, and 2025 to date, and exports out of the south-west Vic port of Portland are unusually low for this time of year, reflecting the reduced plantings and below average yields of the 2024-25 harvest.

Also, SA poultry demand, the epicentre of which is the Ingham’s mill at Murray Bridge, is pulling some Vic grain west.

Graziers and mixed farmers in the Western District, and into SA, are looking for rain to fill dams, as some are carting water for stock.

“They’re buying feed barley, and lupins are very hard to come by.

“They’ve started harvesting corn in the Riverina, and its pricing is similar to ASW wheat.

“Sheep like it because it’s easy for them to pick up off the ground.”

Lupins are very expensive, and faba beans at more than A$600/t are also to pricey to work into most domestic stockfeed equations.

Asian demand is supporting the southern wheat market.

“South-east Asia seems to be buying hand to mouth, so back to pre-COVID buying patterns.”

Tags: demand, winter cereals, lupins, sorghum, rain, Australia, corn, barley, wheat, crop, faba beans