Australia: Growers hold as dry grips south

Limited grower selling has seen wheat and barley trade sideways in the past week, with the exception of a few consumer shorts providing spikes in the market.

In the north, growers are generally rolling straight from chickpeas to sorghum as their off-the-header cash crop, and consumers are chipping away on new-crop cottonseed coverage ahead of ginning which will start in April.

In the south, conditions are very dry, as is typical in the height of summer, and growers are holding cereals at least until the autumn break arrives to get the 2025-26 crop up and away.

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Consumers in Queensland northern New South Wales are buying modest amounts of wheat and barley as they become available from growers and the trade.

However, most of the volume traded in the northern market is bypassing the domestic stockfeed sector and rolling from chickpeas straight into sorghum, harvest of which is ramping up in hot and dry weather.

“There’s been a little bit of grower participation,” one trader said.

“People want to sell 100t of wheat here and there to make room for sorghum.”

Subsoil moisture levels in the northern region are generally good, and consumers are starting to book loads as far out as January 2026 at around $355/t delivered Downs.

“Feedlots are full of cattle, and most yards have good coverage on grain.

“Everyone came out of harvest with decent coverage, and April-June is well covered.”

After the sorghum harvest in southern Qld and northern NSW, some growers will jump straight into picking a big cotton crop, with cottonseed delivered Downs trading at around $420/t for delivery between May 2025 and March 2026.

Traders report new-crop sorghum is selling to container packers across the Downs and in northern NSW, and also to bulk sites in Brisbane and up-country.

Wheat and barley export programs are continuing at pace out of NSW and Victorian, with pulses and canola also featuring.

The bulk and containerised export demand for cereals is supplementing the domestic call from feedlots in particular.

Growers are mainly selling warehoused grain into export, and on-farm grain to the local market.

“Exporters seem to have themselves covered for now,” Grain Focus managing director Michael Jones at Young said.

Barley values are sitting at around $290/t delivered Riverina consumer, with wheat at roughly $315/t, and $5/t more in places were shorts exist.

Mr Jones said harvest on the south-west slopes of NSW and surrounding areas was considerably better than expected in some districts.

However, some pockets were hit hard with frost, and others had rain catch the tail end of wheat to push significant volumes into SFW.

“Whatever grade you want, there’s a lot of it around.”

Mr Jones said canola was the main cash crop for growers in the wider region, and much of that has been sold by growers who liked the price at or shortly after harvest.

“On canola, there’s not much left at all.”

Growers are generally seen as being in a comfortable cash position after selling most or all of their canola, much of their pulses, and better grades of cereals between harvest and now.

One trader said the dry conditions, as highlighted by fires in western Victoria, have caused “a real lack of grower engagement” at present.

“It’s one of the quietest years of grower selling I can remember,” the trader said.

“Most growers are thinking about how dry it has been, and they’re probably firm holders.”

The trader said growers from the Riverina and its northern neighbour the south-west slopes were showing interest in supplying the southern market.

“North of Wagga, we’re seeing more inquiry from growers for that $15 premium coming into Vic; there are not a lot of domestic homes to sell into up where they are.”

Growers are happy to sell faba beans at close to $600/t delivered Vic ports, and domestic stockfeed mills are seeing better value at $450/t from canola meal, generally preferred by nutritionists.

The trader estimated consumers in Vic and southern NSW are around half covered for the current quarter, and are making solid progress on their April-May requirements.

“If the grower continues to hold for another six or eight weeks, there will have to be some shorts.”

Growers are not expected to let big licks of wheat and barley go until a general break in the season, ideally in April, which will allow them to plant some or most of their winter crop.

Tags: crop, sorghum, harvest, export, barley, canola, wheat, chickpeas