Australia forecasts wheat output down 10 per cent on dry conditions

Source: ABARES

Australia’s wheat production is projected to drop 10 per cent this year to 30.6 million tonnes, with barley and canola output also expected to fall due to dry conditions across several cropping regions, the agriculture ministry said.

Nevertheless, production is expected to remain well above the 10-year average, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said in a quarterly crop report.

Australia is one of the world’s biggest agricultural exporters.

Low soil moisture in southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the northern wheat belt of Western Australia led some farmers to reduce planted area, and dry-sown crops now depend on June rainfall to germinate and establish, ABARES said.

Conditions are significantly better in Queensland, northern New South Wales and southern parts of Western Australia, and forecasts point to above-average winter rainfall across most cropping regions.

“However … it will be crucial for forecast rainfall to be realised to meet current yield projections,” ABARES said.

Barley production is set to fall three per cent to 12.8 million tonnes this year and canola output to shrink six per cent to 5.7 million tonnes, according to ABARES.

Australia produced an average of 27.6 million tonnes of wheat, 11.8 million tonnes of barley and 4.8 million tonnes of canola annually in the 10 years to 2024/25, government data show.

Australian farmers are expected to plant 12.6 million hectares of wheat this year, down three per cent from last year, 4.7 million hectares of barley, up two per cent from year-ago levels, and 3.4 million hectares of canola, down one per cent year-on-year, ABARES forecast.

Analysts’ forecasts for Australian wheat production ranged from 28 million to 34 million tonnes.

In other crops, ABARES said Australian lentil production should rise 17 per cent to 1.5 million tonnes this year, while chickpea output is likely to drop 17 per cent to 1.9 million tonnes.

Tags: crop, lentil, output, ABARES, Australia, barley, canola, Production, wheat