Australia awaits new canola crop of 5.4 million tons

The Australian Oilseeds Federation (AOF) has forecast Australia’s new crop canola harvest at 5 million 435,000 tons from an area of 3.2 million hectares. The production estimate is the first released by the AOF this season, adding 36,000 hectares to the original area estimate released in early June. Both figures are lower than AOF’s 2023-2024 crop estimates of 5 million 802 thousand tons from 3.6 thousand hectares and slightly higher than the latest ABARES estimates of 5 million 385 thousand tons and 3.1 thousand hectares released on June 4.

The AOF report said the current season has been somewhat atypical, with areas used to predictable and useful rainfall experiencing very dry weather, while some typically drier regions have received heavy rainfall.

Australian canola prices have risen since planting, but the oilseed complex has recently been impacted by the large US soybean crop, which is pulling all prices down.

Possible canola shortages in Canada and Europe, however, could provide a solid base for Australian oilseed sales in the coming months,” experts said. Forecasts vary, but lean toward a figure of about 18.5-19.7 million tons, which is 1 million tons more than in the last two years in the European Union. Unfavorable weather conditions are to blame. The main reason for the decline was production in France, which fell by 400,000 tons due to very rainy weather at the beginning of the season. Hot weather during flowering reduced estimates in Germany by 200 thousand tons compared to last year.

Reduced production in smaller producing countries such as Romania, Hungary, Latvia and the Czech Republic also contributed to the decline in production, which could not be offset by small increases in Slovakia, Ireland and Denmark. Rapeseed production in Europe has trended downward over the past decade as restrictions on chemical use and particularly hot summers affect yields. Production in Ukraine is also down on last year and is forecast at 3.5 million tons, 1 million tons less than last year.

Tags: rapeseed, crop forecast, Australia