As expected, USDA brings few changes, and Chicago does not react to the new soybean numbers

The USDA’s September supply and demand report caught the market’s attention last week, but, as expected, it had little impact on CBOT futures contracts and, consequently, on the formation of domestic prices. This is because USDA brought just a few changes to the main numbers concerning soybeans, which is common in the September publication. The US crop suffered a minimal reduction, still being estimated at a record level, while US stocks also had small changes. Even though the numbers were below market projections, they still point to the largest crop in US history and the largest stocks since the 2018/19 season. USDA indicated that the US soybean crop should be 4.586 bln bushels in 2024/25, equivalent to 124.8 mln tons. Productivity was indicated at 53.2 bushels per acre. The number was below market expectations of 4.609 bln or 125.4 mln tons. In August, the estimate was 4.589 bln bushels or 124.9 mln tons. Productivity was estimated at 53.2 bushels per acre.

Ending stocks are projected at 550 mln bushels or 14.97 mln tons. The market was betting on a carryover of 578 mln bushels or 15.73 mln tons. In August, stocks were estimated at 560 mln bushels or 15.24 mln tons. USDA is estimating exports of 1.850 bln bushels (50.35 mln tons) and crushing of 2.425 bln bushels (65.99 mln tons), repeating the projections of the previous report.

For 2023/24, the Department indicated carryover stocks of 340 mln bushels (9.25 mln tons). The market expected 343 mln bushels (9.33 mln tons).

Regarding the global scenario, USDA projected a global soybean crop in 2024/25 of 429.2 mln tons. In August, the figure was 428.73 mln. For 2023/24, the forecast is 394.75 mln tons.

Ending stocks for 2024/25 are estimated at 134.6 mln tons, above the market forecast of 134.2 mln tons. Last month, the forecast was 134.3 mln tons. Stocks for the 2023/24 season are estimated at 112.25 mln tons. The market was expecting 112.25 mln tons.

For Brazilian production, USDA maintained estimates at 153 mln tons for 2023/24 and 169 mln for 2024/25. For Argentina, the forecast for 2023/24 was cut from 49 mln tons to 48.1 mln. For 2024/25, the estimate is 51 mln tons, unchanged from the previous month.

Chinese imports in 2023/24 were maintained at 111.5 mln tons. For the next season, the forecast is 109 mln tons, repeating the previous month.

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Tags: prices, soybeans, US, stocks, futures, Market, Argentina, USDA, Brazil