Argentina’s wheat harvest ends, bringing almost US$3 bn to economy

The 2024/25 wheat harvest in Argentina delivered a positive balance in both productive and economic terms. According to a recent report published by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the campaign concluded with 18.6 million tonnes, a 23% increase compared with the previous cycle.

The increase was supported by a 7% growth in planted area, to 6.3 million hectares. This growth was driven by favorable weather in autumn, ensuring adequate moisture for planting, combined with pricing that encouraged producers to allocate more land to the crop.

One of the campaign’s highlights was the recovery in yields, which reached 30.4 quintals per hectare, 7% above the previous campaign. Key regions such as the northern core and southwestern Buenos Aires province were instrumental in achieving these results, offsetting declines in other areas like southeastern Buenos Aires province.

The wheat sector’s performance was not limited to production. It also had a significant impact on exports and tax revenues. Exports are projected to reach US$2.9 billion, a 49% increase over the previous cycle. This reinforces Argentine wheat’s position in international markets, where its quality and competitiveness are highly valued.

The sector’s fiscal contribution is estimated at US$926 million, up 20% year-on-year. These revenues are essential for the country, not only as a source of foreign exchange but also as a tool to support the economy as a whole.

The success of the 2024/25 wheat campaign was marked by a combination of favorable weather conditions, improved agronomic management, and strong international prices that encouraged investment in technology. Autumn rains were crucial for ensuring proper crop establishment, especially in the northern core regions and the central agricultural area.

The exchange noted that the favorable conditions in these areas led to yields that exceeded the five-year average. However, not all regions were free from challenges: southeastern Buenos Aires, for instance, experienced below-average yields due to unusually high temperatures during the crop’s critical development phase.

The economic impact of the 2024/25 wheat campaign in Argentina goes beyond numbers. It translates into thousands of truck trips from fields to ports, the conversion of raw materials into byproducts through milling, and the consequent added value. It is therefore crucial to continue reducing bureaucracy, export barriers, and price distortions that undermine the competitiveness of Argentine production, such as export duties.

For the first time in many years, there are no restrictions on export quotas. Export duties still apply, reducing producers’ profitability. (However, as this piece was being translated, the government announced that wheat export duties would be reduced from 12% to 9.5% until June.) Nevertheless, with increased production volumes, the wheat sector’s economic contribution in 2025 is expected to grow by 26% compared to the previous year, reaching US$2.9 billion.

Regarding exports, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange highlighted that “a 49% recovery is expected, generating US$2.9 billion in revenue.” As of January 15 (the report’s closing date), foreign sales were estimated at 12.2 million tonnes, of which the industrial sector had purchased 8.3 million tonnes — 29% more than in the 2023/24 campaign.

Perhaps the most concerning detail is that the sold-to-produced ratio stands at 45%, leaving 10.26 million tonnes yet to be sold. While this percentage is similar to other years, the question arises whether producers will sell their wheat as usual given the current price levels and export duties, or if they will hold out for better conditions despite economic pressures. This uncertainty is already looming over the rest of the campaign, and the answer will unfold in the coming months.

Tags: exports, harvest, Production, wheat, yields, Argentina, tax revenues