Argentina set for record wheat, corn yields in 2025/26

Argentina’s agricultural sector is poised for a landmark 2025/26 season, with wheat production projected to match historic highs and corn output expected to reach unprecedented levels, according to the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest monthly estimate.

Bolstered by exceptional rainfall earlier this year, the nation’s crops are thriving, though weather-related risks could still pose challenges.

The Rosario Grains Exchange forecasts a wheat harvest of 23 million metric tons, equaling the record set in 2021/22. This upward revision, an increase of 3 million metric tons from earlier projections, reflects robust yields driven by optimal soil moisture across 6.7 million hectares of planted wheat.

The nation saw unprecedented rainfall in July and August, with several records set in August. For example, rainfall in Gancedo, Chaco, exceeded 115 years of monthly historical records.

However, the exchange warns of potential setbacks, such as late frosts or hot air pulses that could disrupt grain filling. The national average yield is estimated at 3.43 metric tons per hectare.

Excessive rainfall has reduced the planted area by 403,000 hectares, with Buenos Aires Province accounting for 210,000 hectares of the loss. Annual rainfall in the hardest-hit areas ranged from 1,100 to 1,500 millimeters between January 1 and October 8, nearly double the average, with unusual storms occurring during fall and winter.

Corn planting is advancing steadily, with 26% of the estimated 9.7 million hectares sown by early October, a 16.8% increase in area compared to last season.

The exchange projects a record-breaking 61 million metric tons of corn, driven by farmers shifting land from soybeans due to favorable market conditions and export dynamics. The previous 2024/25 corn harvest was recently revised upward to 50 million metric tons, underscoring the sector’s strength.

Soybean planting has kicked off, with an estimated 16.4 million hectares planned, a 7% decrease from the previous year.

Assuming normal weather, production is expected to reach 47 million metric tons, down from 49.5 million metric tons in 2024/25. This reduction reflects a strategic pivot toward corn, influenced by economic factors such as export taxes and global prices.

Tags: corn, planting, soybeans, Production, wheat, yield, Argentina