Argentina is forecasting the second largest wheat harvest in history

Argentina’s wheat harvest in the 2025/26 season could grow by 10.2% compared to last year and reach 20.5 million tons, Ramiro Costa, chief economist at the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, said. The main factors behind the growth were favorable weather conditions, improved soil moisture and lower production costs.

Argentina is one of the world’s key exporters of wheat, as well as soybeans and corn. The forecast harvest will be the second largest in history, second only to the record 2021/22 season (22.4 million tons). The area sown to wheat is expected to increase by 6.3% to 6.7 million hectares.

In March and early April, significant rainfall fell in the country’s main agricultural regions, which, although delaying the soybean harvest, created ideal conditions for the wheat sowing campaign. Forecasters predict that normal or elevated rainfall levels will persist in the Southern Hemisphere through the end of fall and winter, which will have a positive impact on crop development.

The positive dynamics are being reinforced by the increase in the profitability of agricultural production. According to Costa, the cost of wheat on the domestic market remains stable (about $207 per ton), while production costs have decreased compared to the previous season.

In addition to wheat, Argentina expects an increase in the barley harvest – up to 5.1 million tons in the 2025/26 season. According to analysts, exports of these two main winter crops could bring about $4.225 billion to the country’s economy.

Tags: wheat, Argentina, crop forecast