Argentina brings dynamism to the soybean market, premiums fluctuate, and China remains out of weekly U.S. sales

The physical soybean market ended the week with supply of low volumes and volatility, especially in premiums in Brazilian ports. Two developments from Argentina marked last week: first, the announcement of the temporary elimination of retentions, valid until exports reached USD 7 bln, or until October. However, this objective was quickly achieved, leading to the return of retentions within 72 hours. The immediate impact was a sharp fluctuation in premiums for Argentine soymeal and soybean sales, which gained competitiveness and resulted in several cargoes being sold to China.

In Brazil, the impact was also felt: premiums fell between USD 0.30 and USD 0.40/bushel, while port prices dropped by BRL 5 to 6 at the week’s lows. This movement has reduced selling interest, with growers now focused on planting the 2026 crop. Consequently, a very large spread between buyers and sellers was observed, amid a volatile stock market, but with relatively narrow ranges for soybeans.

Last week’s U.S. sales once again did not register Chinese purchases. In the same period last year, China had already purchased approximately 300,000 tons. As highlighted in previous reports, September is not typically marked by large volumes of U.S. soybeans destined for China, but the market is still weighing the risks of lower demand and possible inventory adjustments for the new U.S. crop. For comparison purposes, in 2024, during the same period, outstanding sales totaled nearly 16.2 mln tons, compared to 9.4 mln in the current season. In other words, U.S. exports are expected to be significantly lower, with the critical point concentrated between October and November, the peak period for U.S. soybean flows. Export flows in Brazil remain quite strong.

The export lineup indicated nearly 8 mln tons in September alone, although some of the shipments were postponed for October. Even so, the month is expected to end with a significant volume, consolidating a robust pace. Brazil is expected to close the year with exports of around 105 mln tons, a new record. It is worth noting that this scenario may still be influenced by developments in the trade relationship between China and the United States: if the Chinese increase their purchases from the United States, the pressure on Brazilian exports will likely decrease; on the other hand, if demand remains concentrated in Brazil, the pressure could intensify.

According to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the market continues to weigh the entry of U.S. products with the harvest progress, while also monitoring the pace of planting in Brazil and, above all, weather expectations. So far, the Brazilian outlook appears quite promising. There was some concern about sowing delays, but for now, this risk is off the radar. Climate maps indicate heavy rainfall between October, November, and December, which is extremely favorable for crop development, ensuring good soil moisture and sustaining positive expectations for the early stages of the harvest. It is worth noting that Brazilian soybean premiums are positive for the 2026 seasonality, creating opportunities for price appraisal in advance. This occurs against a backdrop of expectations of comfortable carryover stocks and a record harvest ahead, which, in turn, is expected to bring logistical challenges in outflow and additional pressure on premiums at ports.

Tags: U.S., Market, Argentina, China, exports, Brazil, prices, soybeans, shipments