Analysts raise Canada’s canola crop forecast but lower export expectations

Experts from the German company Oil World have raised their estimate of the canola harvest in Canada for 2025 to 18.8 million tonnes. This is 0.3 million tonnes less than last year’s figure of 19.1 million tonnes.

The estimate of the area sown under canola has also increased to 8.75 million hectares compared to the previous forecast of 8.5 million hectares, although this is lower than the 8.85 million hectares in 2024. The volume of canola processing in the next season is expected to be at the level of 11.1 million tonnes, which is almost the same as last year’s figure of 11.15 million tonnes. At the same time, demand for canola meal will remain low due to China’s trade restrictions and the growth of global soybean meal exports.

Canola stocks at the beginning of the MY 2025/26 will fall to 1.45 million tonnes (from 3.2 million tonnes a year ago), reducing annual stocks to 2.1 million tonnes. As a result, canola exports are likely to fall by 2 million tonnes to 7.3 million tonnes.

China’s 100% tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil, as well as threats to impose tariffs on canola seeds, could lead to further reductions in canola acreage. This is the second consecutive year of decline in canola acreage in Canada, with the forecast 8.738 million hectares representing the second consecutive annual decline of 1.7%. Overall, acreage has stabilized after peaking at 9.3 million hectares in 2017.

Tags: Canada, rapeseed, crop forecast