Analysts predict a decline in pork consumption and prices in China, which will reduce the potential for feed grain imports

According to experts from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the development of pig farming in China, driven by significant demand, has led to an oversupply and a collapse in prices during the period of economic difficulties in recent years.

The country’s average annual pork consumption in 2023-24 decreased from 43 kg to 40.8 kg per capita amid the promotion of healthy eating, demographic changes, and a drop in beef and lamb prices to the lowest level since 2020. An increase in the number of breeding sows throughout the year will put pressure on pork prices.

In 2024, pork imports amounted to 1.07 million tons, but in 2025 they will decrease, while the demand for by-products will remain stable. The number of slaughtered pigs in 2025 will increase, and meat prices will fall by 10-20%, which will further reduce the use of feed grain and corn imports.

Pork production in 2024 decreased by 3.1% compared to the previous year to 51.3 million tons, accounting for 48% of global production. Public frozen pork stocks decreased from 15.9 to 13.8 million tons, and imports decreased to 2.28 million tons. The actual capacity of the Chinese pork market is 67.2 million tons.

In December, the pig population in China increased by 3.2% to 375.4 million heads compared to 2023, and the number of sows increased by 1.9% to 38.7 million heads. During 2024, 592 million heads of commercial livestock were raised (-3.9%), including 54.2 million heads in December.

Last year, pig farming in China became profitable again, amid reduced production capacity and higher-than-expected supply of marketable pigs. The average price was $2.3/kg, up from $2.7/kg in August. The average annual profit was $17.3/head for the wean-to-finish model and $23.6/head for the farrow-to-finish model.

Due to the decrease in slaughter volumes, many small and medium-sized farms closed, while the situation was better in large enterprises operating under the second model.

In 2024, China reduced imports of pork products by 17% compared to 2023 to 2.28 million tons, in particular pork meat by 34% to 1.06 million tons, of which 48.7% were supplied from the EU, 23% from Brazil, 7.2% from Canada, 6.7% from the USA, 6.2% from Chile, 5.9% from the UK. The reduction in imports for the fourth consecutive year was caused by an excess supply in the domestic market. At the same time, imports of by-products grew by 5.1% to 1.22 million tons, of which 50% were supplied from the EU, 27% from the USA.

Exports of pig products in 2024 increased by 7.2% to 270 thousand tons, of which 47% were live animals, 25% – by-products, 18% – processed pork, 10% – steamed, chilled or frozen meat.