Analyst lifts Ukraine wheat export forecast

The ASAP Agri consultancy has increased its forecast for the 2024/25 July-June Ukrainian wheat exports by 12.3 percent  to 14.6 million metric tons, it said on Tuesday.

The Ukrainian consultancy revised its forecast from 13 million tons a month earlier due to a higher-than-expected wheat harvest.

Ukraine could harvest 21.3 million tons of wheat this year, two million tons higher than it expected in July, the consultancy said in a report.

APK-Inform said on Monday it increased its wheat crop outlook to 20.8 million tons from 19.99 million tons, and lifted wheat export forecast in 2024/25 to 13.4 million tons from 12.7 million tons.

UGA, the Ukrainian grain traders union, saw the wheat crop at 19.8 million tons and exports at 13 million tons.

Ukraine’s agriculture ministry gave no forecast for exports of 2024/25 wheat, but said farmers had harvested 20.9 million tons of wheat from 97 percent  of the sown area, as of Aug. 9.

Meanwhile, Russian wheat export prices were unchanged last week with market attention turning to the results of the Egyptian GASC megatender, analysts said.

The price of 12.5 percent protein Russian new crop wheat scheduled free-on-board (FOB) with delivery in early September was $221 per metric ton at the end of last week, unchanged from the previous week, according to consultancy IKAR.

Sovecon put the price of wheat with the same protein content for nearest delivery at $220-$223 per ton at the end of last week, also noting no change.

Last week, some major importers entered the market, particularly Egypt’s state grains buyer GASC whose tender for 3.8 million metric tons over an October to April shipment period was seen as a change of strategy capitalizing on a recent slump in global wheat prices.

Also last week Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased around 600,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender. Traders suspected that wheat from Russia and possibly elsewhere in the Black Sea would be supplied.

Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter. Its exports decreased to 0.99 million tons of grain last week from 1.06 million the week before.

Shipments included 0.89 million tons of wheat, down from 0.93 million tons a week earlier, Sovecon wrote, citing port data.

The first estimate of wheat exports in August is 4.4-5.0 million tons, versus 5.3 million tons a year ago. If realized, this will be the second month in a row with shipments substantially below last season, Sovecon noted.

Last week, analysts announced revised forecasts for Russian wheat.

IKAR said it raised its forecast for the Russian wheat harvest to 83.8 million tons from 83.2 million and its estimate of export potential for wheat in the 2024/25 season to 44.5 million tons from 44.0 million.

Tags: ASAP Agri, Ukraine, exports, harvest, Outlook, wheat, crop, forecast