Amid the war with Iran, global wheat futures rose by 3.1-6.7% for the week, but paused growth in anticipation of the updated USDA balance

The war with Iran is ongoing and could escalate into a major war in the Middle East at any moment. This has already led to a sharp speculative increase in oil prices and supported the prices of wheat and other food commodities.

On Monday, crude oil prices rose by 27% during the session on news of fires at Iranian oil storage facilities, but fell by 20% in the evening amid new statements by Trump.

Wheat quotes on world exchanges rose by 3.1-6.7% during the week of the war, but yesterday the growth stopped as traders began to book profits due to falling oil prices.

Overall, quotes rose by 10-13% over the month, which led to an increase in demand prices on the physical market, but offer prices remain stable due to the increase in sea freight costs.

March wheat futures rose over the week:

• by 3.1% to $224/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago (+13% per month),
• by 6.7% to $224.7/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City (+12%),
• by 6.4% to $234.2/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+10%),
• by 6.2% to €209.75/t or $233.3/t – for wheat on Euronext in Paris (+11%).

U.S. wheat exports rose 40% to 496,000 tonnes in the week ended March 5, with 199,000 tonnes shipped to China, bringing the season’s total to 19.12 million tonnes, up 20% from a year earlier. An additional 6.4 million tonnes of wheat would be needed to meet the USDA forecast, matching the pace of shipments over the previous nine months.

Over the past week, export purchase prices in dollars in Ukraine have remained virtually unchanged, while hryvnia prices have increased due to the strengthening of the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market to UAH 43.94/$. Currently, food wheat is being offered at $216-220/t or UAH 10,650-10,750/t (+ UAH 50/t per week), and feed wheat is being offered at $208-211/t or UAH 10,350-10,500/t (+ UAH 50-100/t) with delivery to Black Sea ports.

In the MY 2025/26, Ukraine exported 9.22 million tons of wheat, which is 31.4% lower than last year’s pace. To achieve the USDA forecast, another 4.8 million tons need to be exported by the end of the season, or 1.2 million tons per month, which is in line with the shipment pace of the previous 8 months.

Today, the USDA will update global grain balances, in which it may reduce consumption forecasts (due to the blockade of the Persian Gulf and the war in the region) and increase stock estimates.