Amid increased ship traffic to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, rumors have arisen about Russia’s return to the grain deal

Ukraine is increasing the pace of ship traffic through a new grain corridor created without the participation of the UN, Turkey and Russia. Thanks to the liberation of Zmeinyi Island and Boyko gas towers, as well as drone attacks on Russian warships, the Ukrainian Armed Forces forced the Russians to move some of their warships from Crimea to Novorossiysk, which facilitated navigation in Ukrainian coastal waters.

On October 4, three more vessels (one from the port of Chornomorsk and two from Odesa) successfully sailed through the grain corridor along the Odesa coast to Romanian territorial waters. 2 of the ships belong to German owners and 1 to a Greek owner.

That means 12 vessels have already entered Ukrainian ports, and 8 of them have successfully returned with cargo. To these can be added 5 more vessels that have remained in Ukrainian ports since the beginning of the full-scale invasion and “tested” the new corridor in August and September.

Yesterday, the Ukrainian Navy announced that 12 more ships are ready to enter Ukrainian ports through the new corridor, and 10 are preparing to leave with cargo. The Ukrainian Defense Forces are working to ensure the safety of civilian vessels heading to the territorial waters of Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey.

There are reports that traders have already nominated almost 40 vessels for loading through the new grain corridor. At the same time, rumors are circulating on the market about the continuation of negotiations on the grain agreement with the UN, Turkey and Russia on October 5, although most market participants see no reason to resume the agreement, which has not been working for the past six months due to sabotage by Russia. It is expected that Turkey will guarantee the safety of ships in the Black Sea, which will allow for unimpeded exports of grain and sunflower from both Ukraine and Russia. Sources, presumably Russian, also report that Russia will be guaranteed exports of gasoline, oils and lubricants in exchange for deliveries of the same products from the EU to three deepwater ports in Ukraine. The Russian authorities allegedly abandoned the demands for the return of Russian banks to the SWIFT system and guarantees of fertilizer exports from Russia through Ukrainian ports, realizing the impossibility of implementing such agreements.

It is also reported that Turkey will make payments for Russian grain and sunflower through two of its state-owned banks with a 12% commission.

At the moment, Ukraine sees no point in renewing the grain agreement, under which the flow of exports will be controlled by Turkey, the UN and Russia, especially given that exports of not only grain but also iron ore and other goods have now been established without any restrictions.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, export, grain, fuel, Black Sea grain deal