All major corn exporters see increased bids – USDA FAS

Since the July WASDE report, export bids for all major exporters have increased, according to a recent USDA FAS world grain markets report. US bids experienced the least change, up just $1/ton to $182, and are currently the most price competitive on expectations of plentiful supplies. For the week ending August 4, NASS estimates 67% of the corn crop to be in good-to-excellent condition, compared to 68% a week prior and 57% a year ago.

Ukrainian bids were up $19/ton to $205. Hot, dry weather in Ukraine may be influencing supply expectations for the upcoming crop.

Brazilian bids were up $5/ton to $192 and Argentine bids were up $4/ton to $184. Farmer sales and exports have been sluggish in both countries.

A surge in domestic demand for corn in India has sharply curtailed exports and led to record imports for TY 2023/24 (Oct-Sep). Driving factors for this rise in demand include government ethanol policy and a growing poultry market. Historically, India has been a net exporter that supplies significant volumes of corn to South and Southeast Asia. For the first time since 1999/00, India will import as much corn as it exports.

India recently revised its 2018 National Policy on Biofuels to include corn as a feedstock, offering price incentives for corn-based ethanol2. Sugar, India’s primary feedstock for ethanol, has faced government restrictions in usage for ethanol following multiple years of low production, further incentivising corn feedstock.

Ethanol manufacturers’ shift to corn as an alternative coincides with a 10% increase in feed demand from India’s growing poultry sector. For the first time since 2019/20, India has imported foreign corn from Ukraine and Burma, where non-GE corn cultivation meet India’s GE import restrictions. Additionally, in June, India announced corn imports of 500,000 tons under a Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) at a 15 percent duty to satisfy this sharp rise in demand3.

High global supplies have facilitated a drop in international corn prices in 2023/24. This has dampened India corn exports as strong domestic prices have incentivised traders to keep supplies in-country.

India has been a key exporter to Vietnam, Nepal, and Bangladesh, exporting 2.8 million tons of corn in 2022/23, nearly a quarter of the countries’ combined total corn imports. However, exports from India to these countries declined 86 percent in the first 8 months of 2023/24 year over year. In response to this drop- off, countries shifted to other exporters or relied further on domestic supplies.