After a long period of growth, corn prices fell by 2%

After speculative growth of 5% during the last two weeks of December, caused by a shortage of precipitation in Argentina, the March corn futures on the CBOT in Chicago on January 3 fell 2% to 177,6 $/t (+2.5% for the month) on the news of a new virus in China and amid profit-taking by traders.

In the next 7-10 days in Argentina is not expected to rain, and temperatures will remain above normal, so the weather factor will continue to put pressure on prices.

Experts of the Grain exchange of Buenos Aires (BAGE) raised the forecast of corn planting areas in Argentina from 6.3 to 6.6 million hectares, of which 80% was planted on December 27. 98% of the crops are in good or excellent condition. In the province of Cordoba – the main producer of grain, where 35% of Argentine corn is grown, currently planted only 56% of the area, and the rainfall in recent weeks there was the lowest.

The quotes are supported by the active export of corn from the United States, which in MY 2024/25 (as of December 26) amounted to 15.4 mln tonnes, up 26.8% compared to last year. In addition, the consumption of corn for ethanol in November increased by 1.7% to 11.8 mln tonnes.

In Brazil, 80.8% of the area planted with corn of the first harvest was planted, and harvesting has already begun in the south of Rio Grande de Sul state. amid favorable weather with heavy rainfall, analysts have raised the forecast of corn crop in Brazil by 0.3 million tons to 128.6 million tons compared to 122 million tons in MY 2023/24.

March corn futures on the stock exchange in Paris during the last two weeks of December rose by 2.6% to 212,75 €/t, but January 3 fell by 1.3% to 210 €/t or 216,5 $/t (+1.9% for the month).

Depreciation of the Euro against the dollar reduces the attractiveness of the European market for Ukrainian corn, so the attention of traders is focused on the Asian market, especially amid news of another outbreak of the virus in China.

In Ukraine, the export demand prices for corn with delivery to the Black Sea ports remain at 204-206 USD/t or 9650-9750 UAH/t, but the devaluation of the hryvnia will lead to higher prices and sales volumes.

In MY 2024/25 (as of December 30), Ukraine exported 9.52 mln tonnes of corn, up 1.8% compared to last year, while in December the exports decreased from 3.2 mln tonnes to 2.3 mln tonnes compared to December 2023.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices