Africa’s dependence on wheat imports keeps bread prices high

Africa remains heavily reliant on imported wheat, leaving bakeries and consumers vulnerable to global price shocks. Even though international wheat prices have fallen significantly — from peaks of $430–450 per tonne in 2022–2023 to around $240–270 per tonne in 2025 — retail bread prices across the continent have barely decreased.

Major wheat-importing countries including South Africa, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Nigeria, Cameroon, Morocco, Egypt, Algeria, Ivory Coast, and Mozambique source large volumes from the United States, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada. This dependence exposes African markets to geopolitical risks, potential new trade tariffs, rising shipping costs, fuel prices, and fertilizer expenses.

While global wheat has become cheaper, the cost of a standard loaf of white bread in Africa still ranges from $0.80 to over $2.00, depending on the country, exchange rate fluctuations, government subsidies (or lack thereof), and local distribution costs.

Bakeries face multiple additional burdens: electricity tariffs in Sub-Saharan Africa are often 2–3 times higher than the global average, frequent power cuts force the use of expensive diesel generators, and inland transport from ports to inland areas adds substantial extra costs. In countries with currency instability and foreign exchange shortages — such as Mozambique and Zimbabwe — governments sometimes centralize imports, which often leads to even higher final prices.

Subsidized wheat from major exporting countries frequently undercuts local production by $40–80 per tonne, making it nearly impossible for African farmers to compete. In South Africa, for instance, domestic production meets only about half of national demand, and cheap imports continue to discourage investment in local wheat farming.

With Africa’s population expected to surpass 1.6 billion by 2035, wheat demand could reach approximately 84 million tonnes annually. Without serious investment in domestic production, irrigation systems, storage, and transport infrastructure, the continent will remain exposed to future global supply disruptions and price volatility.

Experts emphasize that increasing local wheat output and strengthening supply chains are the only sustainable ways to stabilize bread prices — one of the most important staple foods for millions of people across the continent. Some positive signs are emerging: Morocco is actively diversifying its suppliers, and there is cautious optimism about improved local harvests in southern Africa for the 2025–2026 season. However, much broader structural change is still urgently needed.

Tags: Africa, food security, Bread, wheat