Africa expects cocoa bean production to fall by 10%

Cocoa production in West Africa, where the last two crops have been below average, is likely to fall by a further 10% in the upcoming 2025/26 season starting in October, Reuters reported, citing industry sources.

The forecast for a 10% decline in output in the four main producing countries – a consensus view from five producers and six exporters – reverses an earlier forecast for a 5% increase made in May and June.

Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s two top cocoa producers, along with Nigeria and Cameroon, account for more than two-thirds of global cocoa output.

Five years ago, Ivory Coast produced more than 2 million tonnes of cocoa, while this season’s output is expected to barely reach 1.6 million tonnes.

Farmers told the agency that the level of flower mortality in Ivory Coast is 15-20% higher than their May forecasts and is expected to remain high until the end of the season.

Earlier, experts worsened their estimate of the global cocoa bean deficit. According to the organization, the global cocoa bean harvest in the 2023/24 crop year turned out to be worse than the initial estimates – only 4.37 million tons against 4.49 million tons. This is the worst figure in eight years and 12.9% lower than the previous year.

Tags: prices, cocoa