About 40% of Ukrainian wheat goes to Algeria

On the stock exchange, wheat, along with corn, received a boost from the energy factor and weather risks in the US. This is reported by analysts at Spike Brokers.

The market quickly overestimated the impact of fertilizer costs and a potential decline in yields in the southern states, which allowed prices to consolidate above previous levels. Speculative interest has additionally increased against the backdrop of geopolitical risks. However, the global balance looks less tense. The growth of production in Russia, India and Australia is forming a significant supply, while American wheat remains uncompetitive in most tenders. As a result, the stock exchange growth is not transformed into the corresponding dynamics of physical flows.

Ukrainian wheat exports in March amounted to about 388 thousand tons, and the sales structure is even more concentrated than in corn. Algeria accounts for about 40% of shipments, significant volumes also fall on Egypt, Israel and Tunisia. These are markets with a strict tender logic, where pricing is tied to international competition and does not allow for quick premiums.

Against this background, Ukrainian prices remain practically unchanged: 11.5% wheat is traded at $220-222, feed – $213-215, with a slight correction during the week. The physical market operates in the contract execution mode.

The speculative impulse also activated trading in the new crop: deals were fixed at about $225/ for 11.5% wheat and $218 for feed with delivery CPT ports of Greater Odessa.

Thus, in the wheat segment, as in corn, a gap remains: the exchange market reacts to macro factors and risks, while the physical segment, focused on North Africa, remains tied to the tender economy and global competition. At the same time, individual producers and agricultural holdings use current levels to fix forward sales.

Tags: Ukraine, export, wheat, Algeria