Abiove raises forecast for Brazil’s soybean imports in 2024

Brazil’s soybean imports this year are expected to reach their highest level in two decades, while production is down from last year’s record and a notch below the previous forecast, oilseed processing group Abiove said Thursday.

Abiove raised its import forecast to 930,000 tons from a previous 800,000 tons and slightly lowered its production estimate to 153.0 million tons from 153.2 million tons forecast last month.

The world’s largest soybean producer and exporter produced 160.3 million tons of soybeans last year, while imports totaled 181,000 tons. The projected import figure for 2024 will be the highest since 2003, when Brazil imported 1.19 million tons.

Brazil’s 2024 crop was harvested in the first half of the year, and Abiove did not provide projections for the 2025 crop, which is currently being sown.

The group noted that the increase in imports was not related to the low crop, saying Brazil has taken advantage of a “natural opportunity” to import soybeans from neighboring countries in a year of high local exports and processing.

In 2024, Brazil is expected to export 97.8 million tons of soybeans and process 54.5 million tons, both unchanged from the August forecast, according to Abiove. Soybean meal exports were revised upward from 21.7 million to 22 million tons.

In a separate statement released Thursday, Brazil’s national agricultural agency Conab maintained its estimate for the country’s 2023/24 soybean crop at 147.38 million tons, down 4.7% from the previous year’s record.

The agency also did not provide forecasts for the 2024/25 crop.

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Tags: Brazil, soybean