Abiove has lowered its forecast for Brazil’s soybean harvest by almost 1 mln, but it will still be a record

Brazil will harvest 0.5% less soy in 2025 than expected as of last month. However, the crop will still be a record 170.9 million tons, the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) estimated on Wednesday (19) in its monthly review.

This represents an increase of 16.5 million tons compared to the previous cycle, mainly due to productivity recovery in most regions after last year’s disappointing harvest.

Abiove, in turn, raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2024 soybean crop by 0.6% to 154.39 million tons, following a consolidation of last year’s numbers, which saw a record in soybean meal exports.

Despite a reassessment of soybean processing in 2024, there was still more surplus than expected, leading to a 1-million-ton increase in 2025’s beginning stocks, now at 4.14 million tons.

Ending stocks for 2025 also rose by 1.6% compared to last month’s report, reaching 9.1 million tons. Abiove maintained Brazil’s soybean export and processing estimates at record levels of 106.1 million and 57.5 million tons, respectively.

Biodiesel Factor

Estimates for soybean meal production, domestic consumption, and exports remained unchanged from last month.

However, Abiove increased its forecast for soybean oil exports by 27.3% compared to February’s estimate, reaching 1.4 million tons. This revision follows the Brazilian government’s decision to maintain the biodiesel blend in diesel at 14%.

The expectation was for an increase to 15% starting in March. Still, the government opted against it, citing inflationary concerns related to food prices—soybean oil is the primary raw material for biodiesel, accounting for about 74% of total production in 2024.

Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira stated in February that the blend would remain at 14% until the government observes stable food prices, a critical issue affecting President Lula’s popularity.

While it raised export projections, Abiove cut Brazil’s domestic soybean oil consumption forecast for 2025 by 3.8%, now estimated at 10.1 million tons.

According to regulatory agency ANP, over 7 billion liters of soybean oil were used for biodiesel production in 2024.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, crop forecast