ABARES pegs upcoming summer crop at 4.5Mt

Despite good moisture availability and a positive spring rainfall outlook, production from the upcoming summer crop is forecast to fall 12 percent from 2024-25, according to ABARES quarterly Australian Crop Report released today.

The report has pegged Australia’s total summer-crop production at 4.5 million tonnes (Mt), down on last season, but 21pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25.

Area planted to summer crops in 2025-26 is forecast to remain above average at 1.3 million hectares.

ABARES has estimated Australian sorghum production will fall by 9pc to 2.4Mt, with area planted to the crop set to increase 3pc to 602,000ha.

This area expansion is 16pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25 to reflect “expected favourable conditions during the planting window”.

“At this early stage, yields are not forecast to be at last year’s well above average-to-record high levels,” the report said.

Production of cotton is forecast to fall by 16pc to 1Mt in 2025–26, due to a reduction in planted area and lower yields.

Area planted to cotton is also forecast to fall by 11pc to 461,000ha.

ABARES has attributed this mostly to “a fall in New South Wales due to decreased availability of irrigation water and elevated water prices”.

Also heavily impacted by water availability and pricing, rice production is estimated to fall 36pc to 300,000t.

This is driven by a 30pc decrease in the area planted.

“Ongoing dry conditions have resulted in a decline in water availability across the Murray-Darling basin and an increase in the price of irrigation water, which is expected to constrain the area planted to rice.”

The total summer crop production for Queensland is forecast to drop by 9pc to 2.3Mt in 2024-25.

“This is 31pc above the 10-year average to 2024–25, as sufficient soil moisture and the above-average rainfall outlook for spring is expected to support planting intentions.

“At this early stage, yields are expected to fall from record or near record levels seen in 2024–25 for most summer crops but remain 23pc above 10-year-average to 2024–25.”

Qld sorghum production is estimated to fall 12pc to 1.6Mt, despite a projected increase in area of 1.2pc to 410,000ha.

This expected modest jump in hectares planted to sorghum largely comes from higher area in Central Qld, where below-average summer rainfall discouraged planting in 2024–25.

Qld’s cotton production is predicted to fall by 5pc to 390,000t from an estimated 160,000ha, down 2pc from 2024-25.

Yields are expected to fall 3pc from the “near-record levels” seen last season, but will remain 20pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25.

ABARES is estimating NSW summer-crop production to fall by 15pc to 2.1Mt.

This will be 11pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25, “reflecting sufficient soil moisture in northern cropping regions and the above-average rainfall outlook”.

Yields are also predicted to be lower than last season but be 7pc above the 10-year-average to 2024-25.

Area planted to sorghum is forecast to increase by 5.6pc to 190,000ha but a drop in average yields is expected to see total production fall 2.4pc to 830,000t.

“Good soil-moisture availability and the positive spring rainfall outlook should incentivise sorghum planting.

“However, sorghum area planted will ultimately depend on the timing of winter crop harvests and soil moisture during the planting window.”

NSW cotton production is estimated to drop by 21pc to 618,000t with area also expected to fall by 16pc to 283,000ha.

Low carryover water and below-average allocations are expected to drive lower irrigated planting while dryland planting is expected to fall slightly but remain well above average.

Source: ABARES

Tags: forecast, cotton, summer crop, sorghum, Australia, Production, yields