ABARES lifts wheat, canola estimates, trims barley
ABARES has marginal increased its estimates for Australia’s wheat and canola crops now being harvested, and cut its barley estimate, in its quarterly Australian Crop Report out December 3.
Its national wheat estimate now stands at 31.89 million tonnes (Mt), up 60,000t from its previous estimate released in September, while canola at 5.587Mt is up 115,000t from the previous forecast.
The barley estimate, now at 11.665Mt, has dropped 495,000t from the September figure, primarily to reflect a 470,000t drop in South Australia.
SA’s harsh growing season has continued through spring, to cut 1.3Mt over the quarter from the SA wheat estimate, now at 3Mt, with canola dropping 85,000t to 325,000t.
“Persistent dryness, frosts and isolated hail events throughout the growing season have all limited yield potential and led to production downgrades,” ABARES said of SA for the latest crop report.
“Below-average to very much below-average rainfall totals across all cropping regions in September also contributed to production downgrades with crops also affected by frost being cut for hay across the Eyre Peninsula and northern districts.
“Similar to other areas affected by frost and water stress, paddocks without sufficient biomass to cut for hay were either abandoned to preserve groundcover to minimise erosion risk or carried through to harvest with severe yield penalties.”
Victoria also had a challenging spring to end its largely unfavourable growing season, and estimates for its wheat, barley and canola were cut by 520,000t, 400,000t and 50,000t respectively.
“Lower-than-expected rainfall and widespread severe frosts in September have also affected crops, with wheat and barley being cut for hay across major cropping zones in the Mallee and Wimmera,” ABARES said of the Victorian experience.
“Frost-affected regions without sufficient biomass to cut for hay have seen fields either left abandoned to maintain groundcover to minimise erosion risk or carried through to harvest with mixed yield outcomes.”
Tempering the tough Victorian season was above-average October rainfall in the north-central and eastern Mallee, which helped grain fill and arrested further yield penalties.
ABARES said timely rainfall for Western Australian crops helped to offset the dry and hot start to the growing season, and WA is now forecast to harvest 10.75Mt of wheat, 4.65Mt of barley, and 2.7Mt of canola, up 350,000t, 150,000t and 400,000t respectively over the quarter.
“Despite below-average spring rainfall across southern growing regions in Western Australia, most regions received sufficient rainfall during the critical grain fill windows to support above average yields and production,” ABARES said.
In New South Wales, upward revisions of 1.4Mt and 200,000t respectively have been made to its wheat and barley estimates, while the canola figure has dropped 150,000t to reflect southern NSW’s drier start to the season, as well as some frost damage.
The total NSW winter crop is expected to be the second-highest on record to reflect its mostly favourable conditions on its second-biggest ever winter-crop area.
“The central west and northern cropping regions have benefitted from above-average soil-moisture levels and favourable rainfall throughout winter and spring,” the report said of NSW.
Queensland, where the winter-crop harvest is all but over, is seen as being on track to produce its biggest ever winter crop.
“Adequate rainfall and high soil moisture levels at planting saw an optimal start to the cropping season and a year-on-year expansion in area.
“Favourable rainfall in the growing season, particularly in southern growing regions, boosted yields for all major winter crops.”
| WHEAT | Sep 2024-25 ha | Sep 2024-25 tns | Dec 2024-25 ha | Dec 2024-25 tns |
| Qld | 900,000 | 2,100,000 | 900,000 | 2,230,000 |
| NSW | 3,750,000 | 11,000,000 | 3,800,000 | 12,400,000 |
| Vic | 1,500,000 | 3,970,000 | 1,500,000 | 3,450,000 |
| Tas | 10,000 | 60,000 | 10,000 | 60,000 |
| SA | 2,100,000 | 4,300,000 | 2,100,000 | 3,000,000 |
| WA | 4,750,000 | 10,400,000 | 4,750,000 | 10,750,000 |
| TOTAL | 13,010,000 | 31,830,000 | 13,060,000 | 31,890,000 |
Table 1: Estimates revised in September for Australia’s 2024-25 wheat area and tonnes produced, and latest estimates released today.
| BARLEY | Sep 2024-25 ha | Sep 2024-25 tns | Dec 2024-25 ha | Dec 2024-25 tns |
| Qld | 180,000 | 510,000 | 185,000 | 535,000 |
| NSW | 980,000 | 2,800,000 | 970,000 | 3,000,000 |
| Vic | 820,000 | 2,400,000 | 820,000 | 2,000,000 |
| Tas | 6,000 | 30,000 | 6,000 | 30,000 |
| SA | 810,000 | 1,920,000 | 810,000 | 1,450,000 |
| WA | 1,650,000 | 4,500,000 | 1,650,000 | 4,650,000 |
| TOTAL | 4,446,000 | 12,160,000 | 4,441,000 | 11,665,000 |
Table 2: Estimates revised in September for Australia’s 2024-25 barley area and tonnes produced, and latest estimates released today.
| CANOLA | Sep 2024-25 ha | Sep 2024-25 tns | Dec 2024-25 ha | Dec 2024-25 tns |
| Qld | 5,000 | 8,000 | 6,000 | 9,500 |
| NSW | 900,000 | 1,800,000 | 900,000 | 1,650,000 |
| Vic | 520,000 | 950,000 | 520,000 | 900,000 |
| Tas | 2,000 | 4,000 | 2,000* | 4,000* |
| SA | 260,000 | 410,000 | 260,000 | 325,000 |
| WA | 1,550,000 | 2,300,000 | 1,600,000 | 2,700,000 |
| TOTAL | 3,237,000 | 5,472,000 | 3,288,000 | 5,588,500 |
Table 3: Estimates revised in September for Australia’s 2024-25 canola area and tonnes produced, and latest estimates released today.
Source: ABARES
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