ABARES lifts wheat, canola estimates, trims barley
Australia’s national forecaster has finalised its estimates for the most recent winter-crop harvest, with wheat production seen at 25.96 million tonnes (Mt), barley at 10.8Mt, and canola at 5.68Mt.
The figures have been released today in ABARES quarterly Australian Crop Report.
“This reflects improved production in Victoria and New South Wales which is estimated to more than offset reduced production in Western Australia,” ABARES said in the report.
It said the national winter-crop harvest progressed earlier and at a much faster pace than in recent years.
“The earlier start to harvest was driven by hot and dry finishing conditions in Queensland, northern NSW, South Australia and Western Australia.
“Widespread rainfall events in November and early summer resulted in some harvest delays across major cropping regions in central and southern NSW, Victoria and parts of South Australia.
“The quality profile of the national wheat crop was mixed with a higher proportion of wheat making high-protein grades compared to the three previous La Niña years, particularly in Western Australia and South Australia.
“However, wheat in Victoria and parts of NSW was heavily weighted to the lower protein Australian Standard White grade, with some quality downgrades due to wet harvest conditions.”
| WHEAT TNS | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 Dec | 2023-24 Mar |
| Qld | 2,222,000 | 2,305,000 | 1,100,000 | 1,080,000 |
| NSW | 12,029,000 | 10,260,000 | 6,600,000 | 7,095,000 |
| Vic | 4,246,000 | 5,393,000 | 4,619,000 | 5,200,000 |
| SA | 4,750,000 | 7,350,000 | 4,900,000 | 4,800,000 |
| WA | 12,919,000 | 13,800,000 | 8,150,000 | 7,700,000 |
| Tas | 70,000 | 82,500 | 85,000 | 85,000 |
| Total | 36,236,000 | 39,190,500 | 25,454,000 | 25,960,000 |
Table 1: Australian wheat production estimates in tonnes and by state. Source: ABARES
| WHEAT HA | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 Dec | 2023-24 Mar |
| Qld | 941,000 | 980,000 | 800,000 | 720,000 |
| NSW | 3,608,000 | 3,600,000 | 3,300,000 | 3,300,000 |
| Vic | 1,445,000 | 1,500,000 | 1,540,000 | 1,540,000 |
| SA | 2,008,000 | 2,200,000 | 2,200,000 | 2,200,000 |
| WA | 4,718,000 | 4,750,000 | 4,650,000 | 4,650,000 |
| Tas | 9,300 | 15,000 | 12,000 | 12,000 |
| Total | 12,729,300 | 13,045,000 | 12,610,000 | 12,422,000 |
Table 2: Australian wheat area in hectares and by state. Source: ABARES
| BARLEY TNS | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 Dec | 2023-24 Mar |
| Qld | 617,000 | 403,000 | 280,000 | 300,000 |
| NSW | 3,562,000 | 2,278,000 | 1,745,000 | 1,920,000 |
| Vic | 2,271,000 | 2,896,000 | 2,953,000 | 2,780,000 |
| SA | 2,146,000 | 2,900,000 | 2,100,000 | 2,050,000 |
| WA | 5,758,000 | 5,600,000 | 4,000,000 | 3,700,000 |
| Tas | 24,000 | 60,500 | 50,000 | 50,000 |
| Total | 14,378,000 | 14,137,500 | 11,128,000 | 10,800,000 |
Table 3: Australian barley production estimates in tonnes and by state. Source: ABARES
| BARLEY HA | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 Dec | 2023-24 Mar |
| Qld | 207,000 | 136,000 | 150,000 | 150,000 |
| NSW | 1,159,000 | 780,000 | 800,000 | 800,000 |
| Vic | 870,000 | 820,000 | 830,000 | 830,000 |
| SA | 970,000 | 830,000 | 800,000 | 800,000 |
| WA | 1,884,000 | 1,550,000 | 1,600,000 | 1,600,000 |
| Tas | 4,300 | 11,000 | 7,000 | 7,000 |
| Total | 5,094,300 | 4,127,000 | 4,187,000 | 4,187,000 |
Table 4: Australian barley area in hectares and by state. Source: ABARES
| CANOLA TNS | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 Dec | 2023-24 Mar |
| Qld | 4,700 | 10,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 |
| NSW | 2,114,000 | 1,800,000 | 1,305,000 | 1,345,000 |
| Vic | 1,303,000 | 1,383,000 | 1,202,000 | 1,260,000 |
| SA | 435,000 | 770,000 | 510,000 | 570,000 |
| WA | 2,954,000 | 4,300,000 | 2,500,000 | 2,500,000 |
| Tas | 9,800 | 10,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 |
| Total | 6,820,500 | 8,273,000 | 5,523,000 | 5,681,000 |
Table 5: Australian canola production estimates in tonnes and by state. Source: ABARES
| CANOLA HA | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 Dec | 2023-24 Mar |
| Qld | 2,200 | 4,700 | 4,000 | 4,000* |
| NSW | 941,000 | 900,000 | 840,000 | 840,000 |
| Vic | 569,000 | 600,000 | 550,000 | 550,000 |
| SA | 222,000 | 290,000 | 290,000 | 290,000 |
| WA | 1,513,000 | 2,100,000 | 1,800,000 | 1,800,000 |
| Tas | 3,600 | 5,000 | 3,000 | 3,000 |
| Total | 3,250,800 | 3,899,700 | 3,487,000 | 3,487,000 |
Table 6: Australian canola area in hectares and by state. Source: ABARES
In the accompanying, March 2024 Agricultural Commodities Report, ABARES said the nominal value of agricultural exports is forecast to fall by 14 percent to reach $67 billion in the year to 30 June 2024.
This fall is largely driven by declining domestic crop production and softer international prices for most crop commodities.
Supply chain disruptions that have been a substantial issue over the past few years are expected to be less prevalent and the price volatility caused by the war in Ukraine is also easing, as there is less
uncertainty about the Black Sea corridor and Russia and Ukraine’s ability to export grain.
Global wheat production is expected to be higher than average in 2023-24, putting downward pressure on prices, which are forecast to fall 14pc.
The lower prices and lower production volumes are forecast to see Australia’s wheat exports fall by $7B in 2023-24.
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