A shortage of high-quality grain is expected on the global durum wheat market

Experts from the USA, Canada and other countries of the world believe that the production of durum wheat in 2023 may be insufficient to meet the demand of the main importers, reports Progressive Farmer.

According to the USDA forecast, the United States will harvest 54 million bushels of durum in 2023, which will be 16% or 9.9 million bushels less than the 2022 harvest. Statistics Canada experts have not yet released their forecast for the yield and gross harvest of the main agricultural crops, but some Canadian experts estimate the production of durum at a maximum of 4 million tons.

At the same time, all market participants are concerned not only about the quantity, but also about the quality of the future harvest. Durum wheat quality is expected to be quite poor, reducing supplies to major pasta importers and producers, such as Italy, and leading to shortages in Canada and the United States.

The shortage of durum wheat in Italy may be related not only to the reduction in production in the US and Canada, but also to its own failure caused by excessive rainfall in May and the first half of June. Against the background of dwindling stocks of durum wheat in Italy at the beginning of the season and its poor quality, prices (especially for high-quality grain) have already risen to €460/t or $570/t.

News of reduced wheat quality in Germany due to prolonged rains and reduced production in Spain will lead to further increases in prices for high-quality grain.

According to COAG, in Spain, the drought damaged 80% of wheat crops and led to significant losses in the grain sector. The production of grain crops decreased by 67% compared to 2022, from 15.5 to 5 million tons, and the wheat harvest became the lowest in the last several decades.

The demand for grain in Spain is approximately 36.1 million tons per year, so the country will be forced to increase imports. But against the backdrop of difficulties with supplies from Ukraine, Spain will have to look for alternative suppliers, such as Argentina or Brazil.