A Shift to Wetter Weather Expected in Central Brazil

Central Brazil has suffered under hot and dry conditions since May, with temperatures reaching as high as 100 to 108°F, but the forecast is calling for a change in the weather pattern.

Only widely scattered light showers has fallen in central Brazil over the last week, but more widespread showers are forecasted in central Brazil and they are expected to increase in the 10-15 day period. Rainfall amounts in central Brazil are expected to be 1-2 inches with more in the longer-range forecast. Lessor amounts are expected in northern and northeastern Brazil.

The rainfall cannot come soon enough for farmers waiting to start planting their 2024/25 soybeans. As of last Friday, farmers in Mato Grosso, which is Brazil’s largest soybean producing state, had planted less than 1% of their anticipated soybeans. The plating pace is expected to pick up in anticipation of the rain and accompanying lower temperatures. If the weather cooperates, farmers in Mato Grosso can plant approximately 15% of their soybeans per week.

In contrast to central Brazil, southern Brazil has been receiving rain over the last several weeks allowing farmers to plant their first corn crop and get started on soybean planting. More rain is in the forecast for southern Brazil especially for the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

As of earlier this week, farmers in the state of Parana had planted over 60% of their first corn crop and 22% of their soybeans according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). In Rio Grande do Sul, farmers have planted 50% of their corn.

A delay in soybean planting could have a greater impact on the safrinha corn production than the soybean production. Approximately 75% of Brazil’s corn is planted as a second crop after soybeans are harvested. If soybean planting is delayed, so too would be the safrinha corn planting and that could impact the safrinha corn yield.

A short delay in soybean planting in central Brazil may not impact the potential soybean yield if the weather cooperates for the rest of the growing season.

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Tags: yield, safrinha corn, first corn crop, showers, rain, planting, Brazil, soybeans, Production, forecast