Record wheat production and exports forecast for Argentina

A combination of advanced technology and favorable weather has led to an unprecedented harvest in the MY 2025/26.

Improved crop technology combined with favorable weather conditions helped boost Argentina’s wheat production and exports to record levels in the 2025/26, according to a report by the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). FAS forecasts Argentina’s wheat harvest to reach a record 27.5 million tonnes, with most private sector estimates ranging from 27 to 28 million tonnes. By comparison, the estimated harvest in 2024/25 was 18.5 million tonnes, and in 2023/24 it was 15.8 million tonnes.

This historically high production volume reflects the implementation of improved technologies, especially advanced seed genetics, combined with an exceptionally wet winter that ensured exceptional yields across the country. Favorable weather conditions during the grain filling period, characterized by lower temperatures and sufficient soil moisture, further contributed to above-average yields. However, the increased yields have resulted in a decline in quality: a significant portion of Argentina’s new wheat crop has been classified as feed. In a number of import markets, this wheat is being blended with higher-quality supplies from other regions, including the United States and Russia.

Wheat exports in the 2025/26 MY are forecast at a record 17.5 million tonnes, including wheat flour in grain equivalent. While domestic consumption is expected to increase to 7.7 million tonnes, a significant export surplus remains. Key destinations for Argentine wheat include Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Morocco, Angola, Thailand and Chile. Exports to Brazil, which in a normal year are between 5 and 6 million tonnes, are expected to fall to 3-3.5 million tonnes due to quality constraints. In December, Argentina exported three shipments of wheat totalling around 160,000 tonnes to China for milling purposes, the first such shipments in almost three decades. The deals were brokered by COFCO International.

Ending stocks are forecast at almost 5 million tonnes, the highest on record; their fate will depend largely on producers’ marketing decisions and exporters’ ability to secure additional volumes. A significant portion of these stocks are expected to remain in silos at major producers in anticipation of possible price improvements, lower export duties or opportunities to blend with future crops.

For corn, Argentina’s 2025/26 production is forecast at 58 million tonnes, up from the previous year’s estimate of 50 million tonnes. Early corn planted in September and October remains in generally good condition, but below-average rainfall and elevated temperatures in central Argentina in late December and early January have begun to put downward pressure on yield expectations. Corn exports could reach 40 million tonnes, although excess global supply will create some challenges and competition from Brazil and the United States in the second half of 2026. Domestic corn consumption in 2025/26 is estimated at a record 18 million tonnes.

Argentina’s 2025/26 barley production is estimated at a record 5.6 million tonnes, compared to 4.8 million tonnes in 2024/25. As with wheat, higher yields come at the cost of lower quality. Barley exports are forecast at 3.7 million tonnes, of which around 1.2 million tonnes will be malting barley, mainly destined for South American markets. Feed barley exports are forecast at 2.5 million tonnes, mainly to Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries.

Tags: wheat, Argentina, export