Currently, white sugar prices on the single European market are 540 euros per tonne, which is 34% (287 euros) lower than a year ago, when the price per tonne reached 827 euros. On the London Mercantile Exchange, sugar is trading even lower – at a price equivalent to 405 euros per tonne.

Experts at the European Commission expect sugar prices to fall further. The reason for the decline was the abundant global supply in the upcoming season: on May 22, in its semi-annual report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicted that global sugar production would grow by 4.7% year-on-year in 2025/26 to a new record high of 189.3 million tonnes.

In addition, global sugar prices fell last week after a Bloomberg report that India could potentially allow local sugar mills to export sugar next season, which starts in October, as heavy monsoon rains could lead to a record sugar harvest.

The prospect of increased sugar production in Brazil is also putting pressure on sugar prices. Brazilian analysts say dry weather in Brazil has prompted the country’s sugar mills to increase sugar cane crushing and use more of the sugar cane for more profitable sugar production rather than for ethanol production.

In addition, the international sugar trade has recently been hit by the threat of import tariffs by US President Donald Trump.

Even the prospect of lower sugar production in the EU cannot reverse the negative trend determined by external markets: the European Union expects sugar production to fall by 1.4 million tonnes in the new season, to 15.2 million tonnes. This is mainly due to a reduction in sugar beet acreage by 160,000 hectares and problems with crop diseases in Germany and France.

Despite the decline in production, the European Commission expects sugar stocks to increase slightly to more than 2 million tonnes. This is due to a sharp increase in imports by 1.48 million tonnes (to 2.23 million tonnes) and a simultaneous decrease in exports by 4.2 million tonnes (to 3.5 million tonnes).

Tags: prices, sugar