Global crop prices to remain low, while farmer costs continue to rise – Dan Basse

Global crop prices will remain low, according to AgResource President Dan Basse. Today, farmers around the world are struggling economically, their profits have fallen, at least when it comes to winter grain harvests. “We are seeing the lowest margins since 2019,” the expert emphasized. All this is due to increased costs for fertilizers, seeds, and equipment. This growth will continue until 2026, Basse believes.

Over the past five months, global wheat trade has slowed sharply, in particular, China and Egypt have begun to buy less of it. “With the exception of Turkey, global wheat trade is likely to be weak in the coming months until the end of the year,” Basse noted. Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture still forecasts an increase in wheat production by 15 million tons in the 2025/26 season. However, AgResource believes that this forecast is overstated.

The world’s main corn exporters – the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, Russia – will produce an additional 42 million tons to 46 million tons of grain this season. This will significantly increase competition in the world market. The main question is whether China will return to the world corn market and whether it will purchase more than 10-12 million tons, as many traders expect, Basse emphasized. This is much lower than the country imported just a few years ago, when the figure exceeded 24 million tons.

Soybean supply volumes in the 2025/26 season will be record-breaking – its production is expected to increase to 428 million tons, mainly due to Brazil. Soybean processing in the world will increase, which will lead to an increase in the production of soybean meal and put pressure on its price – possibly to the minimum levels in the last 10 years by the fourth quarter of this year, Basse admits. AgResource also observes an increase in the global production of sunflower and rapeseed, which will contribute to a decrease in prices for vegetable oils. It is difficult to make a price forecast. “There are many uncertainties. The United States is still trying to build a trade policy in the conditions of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. A trade agreement is expected between the United States and China, as well as between the United States and the European Union,” the expert listed. Given all this, AgResource is inclined to a pessimistic forecast for corn and soybean prices. The wheat market, according to the company’s experts, is close to its bottom. “Perhaps there remains a price decrease of $ 5-10 per ton as the harvesting progresses in Russia and the European Union. But overall, we believe that the wheat market will continue to change in unpredictable ways,” Basse added.

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