Chicago wheat futures hit contract lows last week, reflective of speculators’ long-standing bearish position on the grain. Investors’ pessimistic wheat stance earlier this year clashed strongly with their enormously bullish bets in Chicago corn, the latter of which have been significantly reduced in the wake of global trade uncertainties.

That represented funds’ largest weekly selloff in CBOT wheat since 2017, predominantly the result of new short bets.

Money managers also staged a relatively large selloff in CBOT corn futures and options through April 29, slashing their net long to 71,329 contracts versus 112,805 a week earlier.

Funds have been bullish in CBOT corn for six months, though their latest stance is significantly below the year’s maximum of 364,217 contracts in early February.

The latest deviation does not stick out as harshly as the one from earlier in the year, but it may suggest that funds are either overly pessimistic on wheat or overly optimistic on corn.

Last week, most-active CBOT July wheat traded at an average premium of $0.58 per bushel to July corn , well below the decade-average of about $1.30. However, the two contracts had briefly reached parity as recently as 2023 and 2021.

Funds’ lack of enthusiasm for wheat extends beyond the Chicago contract. In the week ended April 29, money managers established a record net short position in Kansas City wheat futures and options of 67,269 contracts. Investors have been bearish toward K.C. wheat since August 2023.

Chicago wheat last week established a small premium to K.C. wheat, the first in five months. Traditionally, K.C. wheat prices tend to run higher than those for Chicago.

Recent timely rains for the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop have placed significant pressure on the K.C. contract. The wheat complex as a whole has been weighed down by the fact that exportable world wheat supplies are no longer expected to fall to multi-year lows.

As of April 29, money managers’ bearish views on CBOT soybean meal futures and options were near-record large and up sharply on the week. On the other hand, funds extended their moderately bullish stance in CBOT soybean oil, their fifth consecutive week as net buyers.

They also lifted their modest net long position in CBOT soybean futures and options, which reached 38,202 contracts.

In addition to monitoring any political and trade-related developments, traders in the upcoming week will begin to anticipate the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly outlook due on May 12.

The report will feature USDA’s first look at the 2025-26 marketing year as well as pertinent updates to 2024-25, where analysts might be watching for a possible uptick in U.S. corn exports.