2024/45 Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 170.0 Million Tons

Rainfall in central Brazil eased a bit last week while rainfall in southern Brazil picked up last week. The forecast calls for fairly widespread rain this week with heaviest amounts in Goias, Minas Gerais, and Sao Paulo. Dryness is likely to linger in far southern Brazil.

Soybean yields in central and northern Brazil are expected to be good, in some cases a record, but maybe not as good as expected due to overcast skies and lack of sunshine. There have not been any widespread reports of poor-quality soybeans due to wet conditions at harvest, but that could change if wet weather returns to central Brazil. Yields in southern Brazil are expected to be disappointing due to previous hot and dry conditions.

Therefore, the 2024/25 Brazil soybean estimate was left unchanged again this week at 170.0 million tons with a neutral bias. There needs to be more yield reports before we decide if the estimate moves higher or lower. The range of the current estimates is about 166 to 173 million tons.

Soybeans in Brazil were 3.9% harvested as of late last week compared to 10.8% last year and 8% average according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 2.2% for the week. Wet weather in central Brazil continues to slow the harvest progress. The only major state where the harvest is ahead of average is Parana where 11.2% of the soybeans have been harvested.

Soybeans in Mato Grosso were 4.3% harvested as of late last week compared to 21.5% last year and 13.0% average. This represents an advance of 2.9% for the week. The most advanced harvest pace is in the mid-north region where 6.2% of the soybeans have been harvested.

In many of the harvested areas, farmers are now planting their safrinha cotton. The ideal planting window for safrinha cotton closes at the end of January but this year, farmers are expected to plant until Mid-February. The safrinha cotton acreage in Mato Grosso is expected to increase 5% in 2025.

Below is the soybean harvest pace in Mato Grosso for January 24, 2025 from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics.

Soybeans in Parana were 11.2% harvested late last week compared to 18% last year and 7.8% average. Parana is the only major soybean producing state in Brazil where the 2024/25 harvest is ahead of average. Early yield reports in Parana are generally below expectations due to dry conditions when the earlier maturing soybeans were filling pods. Recent rains should benefit the later maturing soybeans.

Soybeans in Goias were 1.8% harvested as of late last week compared to 6.5% last year and 6.1% average. The Agriculture and Livestock Federation of Goias (Faeg) conducted a recent crop tour that visited 80 properties in 43 municipalities in the state and estimated the statewide soybean yield of 66 to 70 sacks per hectare (59-62.5 bu/ac). Statewide production is estimated at 19.6 to 20.7 million tons, approximately up 23% compared to last year. The concern now is whether wet weather will prevent a timely harvesting of the crop and potential logistical issues when everyone starts harvesting at the same time.

Tags: soybeans, Production, yields, estimate, harvest, Brazil, rainfall