2024/25 Brazil Soybeans 60% Harvested, Slightly Above Average

Rainfall last week in Brazil favored northwestern production areas with the remaining areas staying mostly dry. Rainfall this week should once again favor the northwestern areas with some increased chance of rain in southern areas. Temperatures in southern Brazil last week were very hot, but it should not be quite a warm this week.

The weather concern in Brazil is now focused on dryness in south-central and the southern Brazilian states of Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. These states have received below normal rainfall for at least the past month and there is limited rainfall in the forecast. These southern areas account for approximately 40% of the safrinha corn acreage in Brazil.

The 2024/25 soybean crop in Brazil was 58.7% harvested as of late last week compared to 52.6% last year and 56.2% average according to Patria AgroNegocios. This represents an advance of 8.7% for the week. The current forecast should allow for continued rapid harvesting in Brazil except for a few locations in northern Brazil such as the state of Tocantins where wet weather is causing some harvest delays and quality issues. Therefore, the 2024/25 Brazil soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 170.0 million tons.

Last week, the consulting firm Celeres lowered their estimate of the 2024/25 Brazil soybean production 2.4 million tons to 171.6 million. Earlier in the week, StoneX lowered their estimate of soybean production to 168.3 million tons. Both firms cited disappointing yields in Rio Grande do Sul as the reason for the lower estimates. Conab will issue their March Crop Report on Thursday, March 13th.

The soybeans in Mato Grosso were 91.8% harvested as of late last week compared to 90.4% last year and 86.8% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 9.5% for the week. The soybean harvest should essentially be complete by the end of the week.

Imea estimates that farmers in the state planted 12.66 million hectares of soybeans (31.2 million acres), which is up 1.47% compared to last year. The average soybean yield is estimated at a record 65.32 sacks per hectare (58.3 bu/ac) and the state’s soybean production is estimated at 49.62 million tons, up 5.22% compared to the prior month.

Below is the soybean harvest pace in Mato Grosso for March 7, 2025 from Imea.

Soybeans in Parana were 68% harvested late last week compared to 56% average.

Soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul were 3.8% harvested as of late last week compared to 5% average according to Emater. The soybeans are 57% filling pods and 20% maturing. Early yields are highly variable with the west-central part of the state most impacted by hot and dry weather in January and February.

Rainfall last week in the state was highly variable. In areas with the highest rainfall, there was a partial recouperation of the soybeans. In areas that missed the precipitation, moisture deficits and high temperatures continued to result in wilted soybeans and pod abortion.

Recent crop tours through the state estimated that the soybean production could be down 4-5-6 million tons or more from initial estimates. The eventual production will be determined by the amount of rainfall during the month of March.

Tags: crop, estimate, harvest, Brazil, rainfall, soybeans, Production