2024/25 Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 165.0 Million Tons

The 2024/25 Brazil soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 165.0 million tons.

The weather in Brazil remains hot, dry, and smokey across central Brazil with improved chances of rainfall starting later next week. Until then, only farmers with irrigation will risk planting soybeans. Southern Brazil has received some rain last week with more over the weekend. Up to two inches of rain may fall as far north as southern Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Parana.

Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina also received rain with more in the forecast.

Brazilian farmers had planted 0.06% of their 2024/25 soybeans as of late last week compared to 0.15% last year according to AgRural. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) reported last Friday that a few fields of irrigated soybeans had been planted in the state, but there were not enough to publish an official percentage. Last year at this time, less than 1% of the soybeans in Mato Grosso had been planted. The forecast for Mato Grosso is calling for the chances of rain to increase starting September 25th and if the forecast verifies, planting will get underway in October.

A few fields of soybeans have been planted in Parana, but it too is less than 1%. On average, at least 1% of the soybeans in Parana are planted by this time. A few farmers did “plant in the dust” in anticipation of rainfall. The state did receive some rain over the weekend, but it remains to be seen if the rain was heavy enough to encourage widespread planting.

As of late last week, the soil moisture in Mato Grosso and Parana, which combined account for approximately 40% of Brazil’s soybean production, was the lowest in 30 years. Therefore, it will require significant rainfall of 2-3-4 inches to recharge the soil moisture and farmers are going to be cautious and not risk planting until they receive significant rainfall.

The planting window for soybeans in Brazil is very forgiving. Soybeans can be planted all the way into November and the yield potential may not be impacted if the weather cooperates during the growing season. The problem with delayed soybean planting is the potential impact on safrinha corn and cotton planting.

Brazilian farmers can plant a maximum of 15-20% of their soybeans per week, so a delayed start, means they would not finish planting until sometime in November, which would be too late to follow the soybeans with a second crop of corn or cotton.

Imea reported that farmers in Mato Grosso have forward contracted 30.4% of their anticipated 2024/25 soybean production compared to 36.4% average. This represented an advance of 4% for the month. The average contract price was R$ 107.20 per sack or approximately $8.85 per bushel.

In the September WASDE Report, the USDA left the 2024/25 Brazil soybean estimate unchanged at 169.0 million tons. Conab will issue their first official estimate of the 2024/25 Brazil soybean production in their October Crop Report.

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Tags: planted, rain, Brazil, soybeans, Production, yield, estimate