2024/25 Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 125.0 Million Tons

The 2024/25 Brazil corn estimate was left unchanged, but there are concerns about corn yields in Rio Grande do Sul and the possibility of delayed safrinha corn planting in central Brazil due to persistent wet weather that could delay the soybean harvest. Nationwide. The first corn crop in Brazil is 1.3% harvested compared to 5.1% last year according to AgRural.

The Department of Rural Economics for the state of Parana (Deral) indicated that the first corn crop in Parana is 3% in vegetative development, 14% pollinating, 62% filling grain, 21% maturing, and rated 6% average and 94% good.

The weather for the first corn crop was nearly perfect for most of the growing season with regular rains, warm temperatures during the day and below normal temperatures at night. A dryer weather pattern has developed in western and southwestern Parana since mid-December which could negatively impact yields of the later developing corn. Pest and disease pressures have been light thus far.

Parana’s largest corn crop is the safrinha crop planted after the soybeans are harvested. Some initial planting of the safrinha has started, but less than 1% of the crop has been planted. Parana is the second largest corn producing state in Brazil after Mato Grosso.

Conab is estimating the safrinha acreage at 16.59 million hectares, which is up 1% from last year. The increase is attributed to increased demand for corn-based ethanol which has supported corn prices and that was before the recent surge in corn prices.

Safras & Mercado is estimating the 2024/25 Brazil corn crop at 135.7 million tons, up 1 million from their November estimate. The increase was attributed to improved prospects for the safrinha yield.

In the January WASDE Report, the USDA left the 2024/25 Brazil corn estimate unchanged at 127.0 million tons. Conab will release their January Crop Report on January 14, 2025.

Tags: estimate, corn, planting, Brazil, yields, crop, acreage, safrinha corn