2023/24 Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 116.0 Million Tons

The 2023/24 Brazil corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 116.0 million tons.

The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was 99.2% harvested as of late last week compared to 91.6% last year and 93.0 average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 2.6% for the week.

Below is the safrinha corn harvest progress in Mato Grosso as of July 26, 2024 from Imea.

After a period of wet weather that stalled harvest activity, farmers in the state of Parana are back in the field harvesting their 2023/24 safrinha corn. The Department of Rural Economics for the State of Parana (Deral) reported earlier last week that farmers had harvested 76% of the safrinha corn. This represents an advance of 9% from the prior week.

Of the remaining corn, 2% is filling grain and 98% is maturing. The corn is rated 22% poor (21% the prior week), 36% average (36% the prior week), and 42% good (43% the prior week). Deral reported that yields have been declining for most of the late harvested corn.

Parana is the second largest safrinha corn producing state in Brazil after Mato Grosso. In their July Crop Report, Conab estimated that Parana would produce 15.6 million tons of corn in 2023/24, which is down 15.2% compared to 2022/23. In comparison, the state of Mato Grosso is expected to produce 47.2 million tons of corn in 2023/24, which is down 7.9% compared to 2022/23.

Farmers in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul had harvested 49.6% of their safrinha corn as of earlier last week compared to 8% last year and 18% average according to the Agriculture and Livestock Federation of Mato Grosso do Sul (Famasul). This represents an advance of 9% for the week.

The corn still in the field is rated 34.6% poor (34.4% the prior week), 25.9% average (25.8% the prior week), and 39.5% good (39.8% the prior week).

Hot and dry weather during the growing season has resulted in disappointing yields, especially in the southern half of the state. In the southern frontier region, 56.6% of the corn is rated poor with 51.9% in the southwest region and 46.1% in the southeast region. In contrast, 86% of the corn in the northeast region is rated good with 74% in the north region.

The driest part of the state suffered two extended periods of dry weather totaling 90 days without rain. The first dry period was between March and April and the second between April and July.

Famasul is estimating that farmers planted 2.218 million hectares of safrinha corn (5.47 million acres), which is down 5.8% compared to last year. The statewide corn yield is estimated at 86.3 sacks per hectare (82.3 bu/ac), which is down 14.2% compared to last year. The 2023/24 safrinha corn production in the state is estimated at 11.4 million tons, down 19.2% compared to 2022/23.

Below is the safrinha corn harvest progress in Mato Grosso do Sul (black line) for July 24, 2024 from Famasul.

Tags: corn, Brazil, yields, safrinha corn, estimate