2021/22 Argentina Soy Estimate Lowered Due to Dry Conditions

The 2021/22 Argentina soybean estimate was lowered 1.0 million tons this week to 48.0 million and I have a neutral to lower bias going forward.

Rainfall last week in Argentina was mostly in the southern and western areas. The driest parts of Argentina are north-central and eastern areas. Temperatures have been hotter than normal leading to increased evaporation. The forecast is calling for increased chances of rain later this week and in the longer-range forecast, but probably not enough to change the overall pattern.

The 2021/22 soybeans in Argentina were 73.3% planted as of late last week compared to 77.2% last year and 81.1% average. This represents an advance of 8.6% for the week. In the core production areas, the soybeans are 97-98% planted with 50-80% planted in southern Argentina and 10-30% planted in far northern Argentina. Rains last week in northern Argentina helped the soybean planting in the region.

The full-season soybeans are 82.9% planted and the double crop soybeans are 55.4% planted. Approximately 22% of the full-season soybeans are flowering. The planting of the full-season soybeans in central and southern Argentina should be completed this week.

The soybeans are rated 3% poor, 26% fair, and 71% good/excellent. The percent rated good/excellent is down 16 points from the prior week. The soil moisture for the soybeans is rated 20% short/very short and 80% favorable/optimum. The percentage rated favorable/optimum is down 10 points from the prior week.

Soybean & Corn Advisor

Tags: evaporation, estimate, soybean, soil moisture, Argentina, planted