Rainfall deficit in India could lead to reduced corn planting

Insufficient monsoon rainfall in India is creating risks for corn production and other agricultural crops. According to USDA estimates, corn planting area during the kharif season could decline by 3% due to moisture shortages. Meanwhile, farmers are increasingly considering drought-tolerant crops that require less water and help reduce the risk of yield losses under unfavorable weather conditions.

During the 2026 southwest monsoon season, rainfall in India was 13% below the long-term average. This was the fourth-lowest level recorded since 2001. The most severe moisture deficits were observed in the eastern, northeastern and southern regions of the country, where insufficient rainfall may have negatively affected crop development and agricultural yields.

Despite challenging weather conditions, the total area planted with kharif crops remained relatively stable at 130.25 mln ha, down just 1% from the previous year. However, the rainfall deficit affected the cropping pattern, particularly for corn, rice and pulses. A reduction in corn acreage could increase risks for the domestic market, where the crop is used in animal feed production, the food industry and the bioethanol sector.

Additional uncertainty comes from the potential development of El Niño, which could affect rainfall patterns during the next agricultural season. Below-normal rainfall could also limit water availability for irrigation, particularly in regions heavily dependent on monsoon precipitation. This increases risks for crops with high water requirements.

As they prepare for the winter rabi season, Indian farmers may shift their planting decisions toward pulses and other drought-tolerant crops. Such a shift could help mitigate moisture shortages but may limit corn production and intensify competition for grain between feed manufacturers and bioethanol producers. Further developments will depend on actual weather conditions, soil moisture reserves and irrigation availability.

Tags: India, corn