Stopping exports and delaying sowing in Ukraine will support rapeseed quotes in Paris

Rapeseed prices on the Paris stock exchange, after falling to a 6-month low, rose this week by 1.7% to €467/t or $547/t amid a halt in exports and poor weather conditions for sowing a new rapeseed crop in Ukraine. The EU rapeseed market will experience a sharp decrease in supplies of Ukrainian rapeseed this season, as Ukrainian processors are actively buying large volumes of rapeseed for processing due to customs duties and export problems, as well as a shortage of sunflower.

It’s been a week since the law on the introduction of 10% export duties came into force, but due to its imperfections and the lack of clear instructions from the Ministry of Finance and the tax authority, customs cannot determine who must pay the duty and who is exempt from payment, so exports have actually stopped.

Representatives of business and government agencies have already held several coordination meetings, but, as the participants in the meetings report, it is clear that „quick solutions to current problems should not be expected.”

Key government agencies did not conduct technical preparation of the system for implementing new requirements for a month before the President signed this law, which was prepared “on the knee,” which increased chaos in the rapeseed and soybean trade and led to losses for all market participants.

According to traders, several ships are loading rapeseed at Ukrainian ports, but other ships scheduled for loading will be redirected to load other crops.

As of September 8, 2025, 61.5% of the projected area or 685.3 thousand hectares has been sown with winter rapeseed in Ukraine for the 2026 harvest, which is 28% more than a year ago. However, the lack of precipitation in the south and east will not allow the sowing to be completed in the optimal time (which has already ended).

In the western and northern regions, there was some light rainfall, which will replenish moisture reserves and promote germination, but the condition of the crops remains not very good. No significant precipitation is forecast for the next 7-10 days, so we do not expect a further increase in the area.

Exporters practically stopped purchasing rapeseed while waiting for the resolution of issues with customs, and processors sharply reduced prices by 500-1000 UAH/t to levels of 22,500-23,500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

Most farmers stopped selling rapeseed and switched to selling sunflower, which has risen in price.