Yields, production up for China’s grain crops

Corn production for China is forecast to reach 300 million tonnes in marketing year 2025-26, up 1.7% from the 294.9 million tonnes estimated for 2024-25 due to improved yields, while wheat and rice harvests are seen rising slightly, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Overall consumption patterns are shifting, the FAS noted, with government leadership implementing policies to increase domestic production and grain self-sufficiency while maintaining strategic reserves and restricting imports under campaigns to replace corn imports with substitute products and lower soybean meal inclusion.

“China’s 2025 No. 1 Document continued to note strategies for agriculture and rural development with food security as a priority, focusing on large-scale yield improvement programs and steady area for key grain and oilseed crops,” the FAS said.

The FAS expects plantings of genetically engineered (GE) corn to increase significantly in 2025, which should also be positive for yield growth, as the government plans to promote large-scale yield improvement programs.

In calendar year 2024, grain reserve operations at all government levels increased purchases of domestic grains to protect farmer income, with industry estimates that the government purchased up to 12 million tonnes of 2023-24 corn, 35 million tonnes of 2024-25 corn, and at least 10 million tonnes of 2024-25 wheat.

Corn ending stocks in 2025-26 are forecast at 182 million tonnes, down 13 million year on year, with higher use and lower imports.

On March 4, China’s State Council Tariff Commission also imposed a new round of retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products, including a 15% tariff on wheat and corn, and a 10% tariff on commodities such as sorghum and soybeans.

Corn imports are projected to be 8 million tonnes, 1 million higher than the 2024-25 estimate. The 2024-25 estimate is down by 16 million tonnes from the previous year due to trade policy changes such as retaliatory tariffs. Brazil has become the top supplier of corn to China.

“Because imports from the United States accounted for only about 15% of China’s total corn imports in 2024, the impact of retaliatory tariffs on the domestic market is expected to be limited,” the FAS said.

Total corn consumption is seen at 321 million tonnes in 2025-26, up from 318 million tonnes in 2024-25.

Feed consumption patterns continue to evolve with consumers shifting diets, the FAS said. Marketing year 2025-26 total feed and residual use is forecast to increase slightly from 2024-25 on anticipated stable hog feed but higher poultry feed demand.

Feed use takes up 65% of China’s total corn consumption, said the FAS, which forecasts 2025-26 corn feed consumption will increase by about 1%, as corn remains to be the most cost-effective feed grain in the first few months of 2025. Feed and residual is projected to be up 3 million tonnes to 238 million.

The processing sector accounts for 30% of China’s total corn consumption, among which about 30% is for starch, 25% is for ethanol and about 15% is for amino acid and other products. The FAS forecasts 2025-26 corn industrial consumption will be flat at 83 million tonnes.

Wheat production in 2025-26 is forecast at 142 million tonnes, 1.5% higher than 2024-25 on improved yield and steady planted area. Decent yields and guaranteed returns are incentivizing farmers to plant wheat for the world’s top producer of the crop, the FAS said. The winter wheat crop, accounting for about 95% of total wheat production, emerged from dormancy in better condition than last year, suggesting improved yields.

Total wheat consumption is forecast to be 151 million tonnes, flat year on year. Over the past five years, food consumption of wheat remains stable at about 70% while feed consumption varies from 5% to 20%. The FAS projects 2025-26 wheat consumption for food use to remain stable at 118 million tonnes while feed and residual use also will be unchanged at 33 million tonnes.

“Wheat flour demand has declined for three consecutive years, primarily due to a shrinking labor force and an aging population,” the FAS said. “China’s population fell for the third straight year, reaching 1.408 billion by the end of 2024, a decrease of 1.39 million people from the previous year. Leading milling plants remain stable and operate with slim profits.”

Wheat imports in 2025-26 at 8 million tonnes are forecast 2 million tonnes higher from the previous year, but 5.6 million tonnes lower than 2023-24, the result of China’s tariff policies and cancellations of orders.

Rough rice production in 2025-26 is forecast for the world’s top producer at 208.5 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes, due to a stable area and higher yields. National rice production yields hit a new record in 2024 and are expected to continue increasing in 2025.

Rice consumption is forecast at 146 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes higher than 2024-25 based on anticipated greater demand for feed use. China’s rice consumption for food is expected to decline, along with its population. As living standards in China continue to improve, per capita rice consumption is decreasing, but the demand for taste, nutritional quality, and food safety is rising, the FAS noted.

Tags: China, corn, rice, wheat