World wheat prices have declined slightly, but in Ukraine they continue to grow

High prices for European wheat are increasing export demand for Ukrainian wheat, which rose by 25-30% in May.

During the week, the purchase price of wheat in Ukraine increased by another 5-10 USD/t and due to the growth of the dollar against the hryvnia reached 9700-10000 UAH/t or 215-220 USD/t for milling wheat and 8900-9200 UAH/t or 195-200 USD/t for feed wheat with delivery to the Black Sea ports.

the Recent rains have improved the condition of crops in Ukraine, but in General, the rainfall in may was significantly below normal, which reduced the potential of the future harvest. In the South-West of the Russian Federation, there were also minor rains, but the heat forecast for the coming weeks at 30-35 ° C will worsen the prospects for the harvest.

Ukraine in 2023/24 MG exported 17.44 million tons of wheat, which is 12% higher than last year and reduces stocks in anticipation of the new season.

Accelerated harvesting in the United States and improved crop prospects in Australia puts pressure on world prices. the Australian Bureau ABARES raised its forecast of wheat harvest in the country by 0.7 to 29.1 million tons, which will correspond to the may USDA forecast (29 million tons), and will exceed last year’s figure by 12%, and the average 10-year – by 10%. Experts of the bureau believe that heavy rains in the east of the country created ideal conditions for sowing, but in other regions farmers were forced to reduce the area of wheat planting due to the lack of precipitation.

According to Rabobank estimates, the area under wheat in Australia in 2024/25 MY will reach 961 thsd ha, so the harvest will increase by 5.7% to 27.4 mln tonnes compared to the previous season.

The new 2024/25 season started on June 1 in the USA. According to the NASS USDA, as of June 2, winter wheat was harvested on 6% of the area (3% on average for 5 years), and spring wheat was sown on 94% of the planned area (90% on average for 5 years). 74% of spring wheat crops are in good or excellent condition (64% last year).

July futures for wheat declined yesterday:

• by 0.9% to 247.2 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+3.5% for the month),
• by 1.3% to 257.2 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+3.7%),
• by 0.8% to 269.6 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+1.2%),
• by 0.2% to 258,75 €/t or 282,3 $/t – September wheat futures on the Paris Euronext (+17%).

Tags: prices, wheat