World total grains production in 2021/22 is raised by 2m t – IGS

The forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2021/22 is raised by 2m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,290m, including upgrades for maize, wheat and sorghum. Upward revisions for wheat, barley, sorghum and oats boost the consumption outlook by 4m t, to 2,291m, but with most of the y/y (year-on-year) gain of 64m linked to rising maize use. The figure for grains stocks is up fractionally m/m, and at 600m t inventories are expected to be little-changed y/y. Led by higher forecasts for wheat and barley, only partly offset by a cut for maize, the world trade (Jul/Jun) projection is increased by 4m t m/m, to 421m.

Offsetting adjustments for key producers leave the forecast for 2021/22 world soyabean output unchanged m/m, at a record of 380m t. With consumption broadly steady m/m, at a peak of 376m t (+4% y/y), together with higher carry-ins, the outlook for end-season inventories is raised by 3m, including uprated figures for the US and major exporters’ reserves. Trade is projected slightly lower m/m but, at about 170m t, would be up by 5% y/y.

On the basis of an increased outlook for shipments to Asia, the forecast for world rice trade in 2021 is lifted to a new high of 48m t (+4m y/y). Reflecting an upgrade for India, the projection for global production in 2021/22 is raised by 1m t, to a peak of 513m (507m), with the net increase in supplies channelled to an increased figure for utilisation, leaving carryovers steady m/m, at 182m (+3m). Trade in 2022 is predicted to be little-changed y/y, at close to a new peak.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) was only fractionally higher m/m, as weaker soyabean prices were offset by gains in the other components.

IGS

Tags: forecasts, grain, Production