World rice prices have fallen to multi-year lows

World rice prices have fallen to multi-year lows as the currency of India, the world’s largest rice exporter, strengthens, while large Indian stocks and a strong harvest in Asia will limit any price increases this year.

While lower rice prices benefit price-sensitive consumers in Africa and elsewhere, they could further erode the already low incomes of farmers elsewhere in Asia, which produces nearly 90% of the world’s rice, according to Reuters.

Rice prices fell in April, a month after Delhi lifted the last of its 2022 grain export restrictions, sending export prices for Indian parboiled rice to a 22-month low.

Prices in Thailand have fallen to their lowest in three years, and in Vietnam to a near five-year low.

Prices are expected to remain at this level until the end of 2025, constrained by surpluses in all major exporting countries, traders and industry executives said. The industry expects prices to hover around $10 per tonne of milled rice by the end of the year.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates that global rice production in the 2024/25 marketing year will reach a record 543.6 million tonnes, compared with 535.4 million tonnes in the previous year.

The FAO estimates that total global supply, including stocks, is 743 million tonnes, well in excess of demand, which is expected to rise to 539.4 million tonnes. In India alone, rice stocks, including unmilled rice, in government warehouses stood at 63.09 million tonnes as of April 1, almost five times the government’s target of 13.6 million tonnes.

Monsoon rains are vital for the water-intensive rice crop. The India Meteorological Department predicts that 2025 will see more monsoon rains than usual, boosting production for the second year in a row.

Tags: prices, rice, India