World rice market under pressure from record Indian harvests

The global rice market is experiencing significant volatility due to export restrictions and record harvests in India, which are putting pressure on prices, said Alvaro Duran-Morat, an associate professor at the University of Arkansas. According to the USDA, India set a new rice production record in 2024 of 147 million tons (in terms of milled rice), and its exports could reach 24.5 million tons, exceeding the previous high of 22 million tons in 2021. This led to a 29% drop in world prices for long-grain rice, especially in Thailand and Vietnam, to $400 per ton.

Mercosur countries, including Brazil, are also increasing production, increasing competition. According to the FAO, the export price of Uruguayan rice has fallen from $800 to $582 per ton since October 2024. Indonesia, the top rice importer in 2024 with 4.7 million tonnes, will cut imports in 2025 to less than 1 million tonnes due to favorable weather and inventories, which will further pressure the market, Durand-Morat said.

In the United States, long-grain rice exports in the first nine months of the MY 2024/25 amounted to 2.29 million tonnes, down 21% from a year earlier, due to competition from Mercosur in the Mexican and Colombian markets. Export prices in the United States fell 12% to $650 per tonne, but domestic farmgate prices remain stable, squeezing processors’ margins. The USDA forecasts production in 2025 at 167.2 million quintals, down 3% from 2024.

Arkansas weather has complicated the planting season, but the progress is 80%, according to Duran-Morat. The projected decline in farmgate prices to $12-13.28 per bushel in 2025/26, according to USDA and FAPRI, points to challenges for producers due to global competition and low profitability caused by high costs and falling prices.

Tags: prices, rice, India