World harvest of cereals and oilseeds in the MY 2025/26 promises to be generous

According to an updated report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on June 12, global grain and oilseed production in the 2025/26 season will have an optimistic outlook. In particular, a record wheat harvest is forecast at 808 million tons, which is 1% more than in the previous season, thanks to significant harvests in the EU, Russia, Canada, Argentina, the UK and India. At the same time, due to high demand for food, feed and industrial use, wheat stocks will remain limited – 262 million tons, which is 0.5% less than last year, and prices may remain relatively low.

Corn production in the 2025/26 MY is forecast at 1.3 billion tons, which is 3% more than in the previous season, thanks to good harvests in the US, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, China, the EU, India and Russia. However, increased consumption for industrial, feed and food purposes will reduce stocks by 3% to 275 million tonnes. This could stabilize or slightly increase corn prices due to strong demand.

Global rice production is forecast at 542 million tonnes, up 0.1% from the previous season, thanks to large harvests in India, Vietnam, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh and the Philippines. Thanks to stable consumption, rice stocks will increase by 0.3% to 188 million tonnes.

For soybeans, the USDA forecasts production at 426 million tonnes, up 1% from the previous season, thanks to stable supplies from South America, China, India, Ukraine and the United States. Despite the high demand for soybeans, stocks will remain at a sufficient level of 124 million tonnes, also up 1% from last year.

These optimistic forecasts depend largely on the Southern Hemisphere season, which will begin in October. In the Northern Hemisphere, the sowing campaign is already underway and looks favorable, but for South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina, weather will be a key factor in determining the final harvest results.

Overall, preliminary estimates point to a significant harvest of cereals and oilseeds in the 2025/26 season. However, the final results will depend on weather conditions and the stability of demand in global markets.

Tags: corn, rice, wheat, crop forecast